276 
FXUS63 KIND 201650
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy today with sunny skies

- A few light showers late tonight with the passage of a cold front

- Windy conditions Tuesday with gusts up to 35 mph, isolated light 
  showers possible across north-central IN 

- Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday into this weekend with 
  frost/freeze potential Wednesday and Thursday nights

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Forecast is on track this morning. Sunny and dry conditions will 
continue today with a dry atmosphere in place. 

Tweaked hourly temperatures based on latest obs but no changes were 
made to high temperatures. Winds will increase today as the pressure 
gradient tightens with the approach of a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Skies were clear early this morning and winds have diminished 
considerably from Sunday afternoon as the strong storm system has 
moved away to the northeast. 06Z temperatures were mainly in the 
40s. 

A much quieter day is in store to start the work week with a surface 
ridge moving across the region into the afternoon. A stronger upper 
low with an associated surface wave will move into the upper Midwest 
tonight. A cold front extending from the low will swing through the 
Ohio Valley early Tuesday with clouds...a few light showers and a 
reinforcing surge of cooler air to follow for midweek.

There remains at least some potential for frost prior to daybreak 
focused primarily over the northern Wabash Valley. Winds remaining 
at 4 to 8 mph through daybreak however should limit any frost 
accrual to localized and sheltered areas where winds may briefly go 
near calm.

Little in the way of any clouds are expected today with the 
exception of a few thin mid level clouds passing by to the north. 
Winds will pick up noticeably by this afternoon as the surface 
pressure gradient tightens in between the departing surface ridge 
and the approaching cold front. Gusts peaking at 20-25mph will be 
possible as winds back to southerly by late day. The front will move 
into the region by late evening then sweep across the forecast area 
overnight. Moisture will be limited with the front and largely 
confined to the mid levels while isentropic lift is weak and not 
positioned favorably either. The lack of more substantial amounts of 
both moisture and lift will keep any light showers isolated to 
widely scattered and focused especially over the northern half of 
the forecast area late tonight. Winds will increase with the 
approach and passage of the front with the potential for gusts 
peaking at 25 to 30 mph for a short time in the immediate wake of 
the frontal passage as cold advection establishes.

Temps...the combination of warm advection developing and abundant 
sunshine will enable highs to rise into the mid and upper 60s from 
northeast to southwest across the forecast area. Lows tonight will be 
in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

A large broad low pressure system will move through the region at 
the start of the period with an associated cold front shifting east 
of the area around daybreak Tuesday. Cold air advection behind the 
front and slight daytime heating should promote steepening low-level 
lapse rates through the day. Look for windy conditions as a result 
with gusts up to 35 mph possible. The steepening lapse rates and 
lingering low-level moisture could also promote isolated showers, 
mainly across north-central Indiana. 

Upper troughing across the eastern CONUS combined with subtle cold 
air advection will keep temperatures below normal during the work 
week. Quiet weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday as 
drier air filters in and surface high pressure slowly builds over 
the region. Expect the coldest lows Wednesday and Thursday night due 
to more favorable radiational cooling conditions. There is potential 
for frost once winds relax Wednesday night, allowing lows to fall 
into the mid 30s. Surface high pressure building overhead Thursday 
night supports even colder lows near freezing for portions of 
central Indiana.  

Broad upper troughing aloft finally begins to shift out of the 
region late this week, but guidance depicts another shortwave moving 
in quickly. Forcing from the approaching system and gulf moisture 
advection will lead to increasing rain chances heading into the 
weekend. Exact details are still uncertain due to diverging model 
solutions, but it is worth noting latest ensemble guidance is 
slightly more bullish on rain chances/amounts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Impacts: 

- Low level wind shear this evening and into the overnight
- Wind gusts of 20-25kt this afternoon with equal or higher 
  gusts Tuesday afternoon

Discussion: 

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front will 
bring some mainly mid clouds along with some sprinkles/light showers 
tonight. Best chance for a shower will be at KLAF, but even then 
odds for an impactful shower are low enough to leave out of the TAF.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon then probably diminish some 
tonight. However, wind gusts will be stronger on Wednesday afternoon 
with gusts of 30kt possible after 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50