955 
AXNT20 KNHC 200558
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Oct 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W, from 12N 
southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to 
scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 12N between
26W and 31W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, from 10N 
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 05N to 09N between 42W and 49W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest AL98) has its axis 
near 62.9W, from 19N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is S of 17N between 56W and 68W. Fresh to strong
E winds are from 14N to 18N betwen 60W and 66W, with 8-11 ft 
seas. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the 
disturbance continues to lack a closed circulation. The system is
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt, which should limit 
significant development during the next day or so. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean 
Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle
to latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue affecting 
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning. There 
is a LOW chance of development through the next 48 hours. For more
information on the development of this system, please see the 
latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

A another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has its axis near 
72W south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant 
convection is depicted at this moment in association with this 
wave. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N16W an 
extends westward to 11N25W. The ITCZ 09N33W to 06N43W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 21W and 
25.5W. Similar convection is also noted from 06N to 11N between 
32W and 41W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is analyzed from 30N86W to 26N97W. Moderate NE winds
are behind the cold front. Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal 
trough extends from 28N83W to 26N86W. Elsewhere across the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a cold front, currently extending from the 
Florida panhandle to N Mexico, will progress southeastward over 
the Gulf through early this week. Moderate N to NE winds are 
expected north of the front, with locally fresh winds possible 
north of 27N through Mon morning. High pressure will build over 
the basin in the wake of this front, leading to gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas over the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Outside of the tropical waves described above, weak ridging
prevails across the basin. Fresh to locally strong trades, with 
4 to 7 ft seas, are analyzed in the south-central Caribbean. 
Light to gentle trades and slight seas are analyzed in the western
Caribbean. Seas may be locally higher within the Mona Passage and
other Atlantic Passages between the islands of the Lesser 
Antilles, due to arriving N swell and the approaching tropical 
wave (AL98). Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 
77W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the 
south- central basin through early Mon. Rough seas in N swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages through early this week. 
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is producing fresh to 
strong winds, rough seas and increasingly organized shower and 
thunderstorm activity. The system is moving quickly westward at 20
to 25 mph, which will likely limit its development over the next 
day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to 
become more favorable for development as the wave slows down over 
the central Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the middle to latter portion of this week. Regardless 
of development, heavy rainfall with locally gusty winds along with
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany this wave as 
it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean this week. There 
is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours, 
and a high chance within the next 7 days. 


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, also see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on the tropical waves moving across the basin. 

A stationary front is dissipating and extends from 23N55W to the 
SE Bahamas. North of the front, gentle to moderate SW winds 
prevail, with seas 10 to 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is 
found along the front. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
west of 77W in association to a surface trough. NE to E winds are
gentle to moderate across the basin with moderate seas. Trades 
increase to near fresh speeds from 05N to 15N between 43W and 55W,
and this wind surge has built rough seas. A 1023 mb subtropical 
high pressure is centered near 31N31W. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extending from 
23N55W to the SE Bahamas will gradually dissipate through Mon. 
Widespread rough seas east of 70W will slowly subside from 
northwest to southeast through Mon night. Moderate to locally 
fresh E to SE winds are expected near the Bahamas and offshore of 
Florida into early Mon. A cold front will move off the Florida 
coast Mon morning, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds offshore 
of northern Florida briefly W of the front. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are expected south of 25N through 
midweek. 

$$
KRV