077 
AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large and long period NW swell,
generated by a strong cyclone north of the area, continues to 
spread across the western and central Atlantic waters behind a
frontal boundary. The frontal boundary extends from 31N44W to
22N60W to the Turks and Caicos near 22N74W. Seas greater than 12 
ft are north of a line from 31N43W to 26N51W to 31N62W, with peak 
seas to 15 ft. Elsewhere, seas greater than 8 ft are north and west
of the front to 76W. N to NW swell at a period of 12-14 seconds is
analyzed across these waters. Seas will gradually subside from SW
to NE today, with seas falling below 12 ft over the discussion 
waters late tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, from 
from 12N southward, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W, from 10N 
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

An Atlantic tropical wave (Invest AL98) has its axis near 59W, 
from 18N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 18N between 57W
and 62W. This includes most of the islands of the Lesser Antilles.
Fresh to locally strong E winds are from 10N to 17N betwen 54W and
61W, with 8-11 ft seas. Recent satellite wind data and surface 
observations indicate the tropical wave currently crossing the 
Windward Islands still lacks a closed circulation. However, both 
radar and satellite images indicate the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity is starting to show signs of organization. 
The system is still moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt, which 
could limit development over the next day or so, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable as it slows down
in the central Caribbean Sea by the middle of this week. A 
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter 
portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to 
continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through 
Monday morning. There is a LOW chance of development through the 
next 48 hours. For more information on the development of this 
system, please see the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 65W south of 15N. It 
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
across the ABC Islands. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

Based on satellite derived wind data, no segments of the Monsoon
Trough are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ITCZ,
with brief breaks near the Tropical Waves described above, extends
from the coast of The Gambia near 14N16W and continues to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
across the tropics.

GULF OF AMERICA...

The next cold front has emerged into the far NW Gulf, and as of
1500 UTC extends from near Morgan City, LA, to just south of
Corpus Christi, TX. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are behind
the cold front. Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal trough extends
from near Destin, FL, to 27N89W. Scattered moderate convection is
north of 27N between 84W and 87W ahead of the trough. Elsewhere 
across the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas 
prevail. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Yucatan 
Channel.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds 
will occur over the northeastern Gulf into this afternoon as an 
increasing pressure gradient develops between high pressure over 
the western Atlantic, and a cold front extending from the Deep 
South into the northwestern basin. This cold front will progress 
southeastward over the Gulf through early this week, and moderate 
N to NE winds will occur north of the front, with locally fresh 
winds possible north of 27N into Mon morning. High pressure will 
build over the basin in the wake of this front, leading to gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas over the Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Outside of the tropical waves described above, weak ridging
prevails across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades, with
3-5 ft seas, are analyzed in the eastern and central Caribbean.
Light to gentle trades and 1-3 ft seas are analyzed in the western
Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
the coast of Panama north to 16N between 76W and 81W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted in the Yucatan Channel. Seas may
be locally higher within the Mona Passage and other Atlantic
Passages between the islands of the Lesser Antilles, due to
arriving N swell and the approaching tropical wave (AL98). 

For the forecast, rough seas in N swell will propagate through 
the Atlantic passages by this afternoon. Elsewhere, recent 
satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the tropical
wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a closed
circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show 
signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward
at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day 
or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more 
favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the 
middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by 
the middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean
Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward 
Islands through Monday morning. There is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance 
within the next 7 days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT. Please also see the TROPICAL WAVES 
section above for information on the tropical waves moving across
the basin. 

Outside of the western and central Atlantic, which is described 
in the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT SPECIAL FEATURE, and the Invest 
AL98 region described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, NE to E winds
are gentle to moderate across the basin with 4-7 ft seas. Trades 
increase to near fresh speeds from 05N to 15N between 40W and 52W,
and this wind surge has built seas to 8-9 ft. 1023 mb subtropical
high pressure is centered near 31N30W. 

For the forecast W of 55W, widespread rough seas will prevail 
over much of the open waters today, and will propagate through the
Atlantic passages into the Caribbean Sea by this afternoon. Very 
rough seas north of 21N and east of 70W are expected to fall below
12 ft by this evening. Seas in excess of 8 ft are then expected 
to slowly subside from northwest to southeast tonight through Mon 
night. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic early 
this week. An increasing pressure gradient between this high and a
cold front moving through the southeastern United States will 
support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds near the Bahamas 
and offshore of Florida into early Mon. The cold front is slated 
to push off the coast Mon morning, leading to moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds offshore of Florida in the wake of the front. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected 
south of 25N through midweek.

$$
Mahoney