452 
FXUS61 KBUF 191354
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
954 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above average temperatures will continue today, but change is 
on the horizon. Strengthening low pressure will move through the 
central Great Lakes today, with its cold front sweeping east across 
our area tonight. Most of the day today will be dry and windy, with 
rain developing from west to east late this afternoon through 
tonight. Rain will continue east of Lake Ontario Monday as another 
low pressure system develops over eastern New York, while rain ends 
later in the day across Western NY. More unsettled weather will 
arrive by the middle of the week as low pressure crosses the Great 
Lakes with showers, much cooler temperatures, and blustery 
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue through most of the day with thickening 
and lowering high clouds before showers begin to push into far 
Western NY starting during the mid afternoon hours. One more warm 
day today ahead of the showers as the region is firmly within the 
warm sector of a low pressure system to the west/northwest. Highs 
today for most areas will reach well into the 70s, warmest on the 
lake plains with an added boost of downslope flow. 

It will turn quite windy today as a 45+ knot low level jet in the 
warm sector of deepening low pressure to our west propagates across 
the eastern Great Lakes. SSW downslope winds will develop along the 
Lake Erie shore for a few hours this morning with gusts in the 30-40 
mph range. The gusty winds will then become common across the entire 
area late morning through the afternoon as boundary layer lapse 
rates steepen with diurnal heating, and some modest downslope wind 
dynamics continue to the north of any terrain barriers. This will 
translate into southerly gusts of 30-40 mph for most of the area.

Late today through tonight, a moderately deep surface low will move 
from the central Great Lakes northward to James Bay, with a trailing 
cold front moving east across the eastern Great Lakes. A strong 
shortwave diving into the base of the digging trough will then force 
secondary low pressure to develop over PA by this evening along the 
advancing cold front, with this low then moving northeast into 
central or eastern NY by Monday morning. Strong forcing for ascent 
ahead of the sharp trough, upper level jet dynamics, and strong low 
level convergence along the cold front and near the deepening 
frontal wave will all support a sold area of showers moving into 
Western NY by late this afternoon or early evening, spreading east 
across the rest of the area tonight. 

There may be an isolated embedded thunderstorm or two, but meager 
instability will keep the thunder chances very limited. There is a 
chance of a low topped band of convective showers (without thunder) 
along the cold front with gusty winds, but the chances of any gusts 
reaching severe criteria appear to be quite low given the lack of 
boundary layer instability. This system will produce beneficial 
rainfall to help with ongoing moderate to severe drought. While 
there may be some ponding of water where leaves are clogging storm 
drains, the chance of any flooding is minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue Monday as a deep upper trough 
becomes negatively tilted and closes off. Greatest forcing will be 
across central and eastern New York during the morning with 
widespread showers ahead of the trough axis. CAMs showing some 
convective elements moving through the Finger lakes and North 
Country with the potential for heavier rainfall rates. The shower 
activity will trend downward through the day from west to east as a 
transient ridge and drier air start to move in from the west. Monday 
will be windy with gusts 30-35 mph across much of the region, along 
with sharply cooler temperatures with highs in mainly in the 50s.

Low pressure over northern New York departs northward into Quebec 
allowing the transient ridge to settle across the region Monday 
night through Tuesday morning, bringing a brief period of dry 
weather. Large upper low and attendant area of surface low pressure 
moving into the upper Great Lakes will send a surface cold front 
into western and north central New York Tuesday afternoon bringing 
the chances for showers back into the region, especially across the 
far western areas closer to the better mid/upper level forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large upper low will then sit and spin over the eastern third of 
Canada, Great Lakes, and Northeast for much of the period. This will 
keep a cold cyclonic flow in place aloft with several embedded ill-
timed shortwaves pinwheeling about this feature that will bring 
enhanced chances for more in the way of widespread showers anytime 
one of these features passes over the area. More notably will be 
850mb temperatures averaging from zero to -2C or -3C with plentiful 
mid/upper level moisture sitting atop this cold low level airmass 
within the cyclonic flow. This will fire up the lake effect machine, 
especially in the Wednesday through Thursday night timeframe with 
the potential for localized significant rainfall downwind of Lakes 
Erie and Ontario, along with breezy conditions. Just looking at the 
larger picture from a pattern recognition standpoint alone, this 
looks like a favorable lake effect setup.

Medium range guidance then diverges some with how fast the large 
upper level low exits the region for the tail end of the work week 
into the start of next weekend. This will determine if we start to 
dry out or if periodic synoptic and/or lake effect showers continue. 

Temperatures will trend below average for much of the period, 
possibly returning to near average by the start of next weekend. 
Again, dependent on how the pattern evolves toward the end of the 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR flight conditions are expected into the mid afternoon today, 
along with gusty winds as a 45 knot SSW low level jet crosses the 
eastern Great Lakes. This will translate into surface gusts in the 
25-35 knot range late morning through the afternoon.

A deepening area of low pressure will move north across the central 
Great Lakes this afternoon, with a trailing cold front crossing the 
eastern Great Lakes tonight. Showers  later this afternoon and 
evening will bring lowering flight CATs. CIGs down to IFR can be 
expected at times both along and behind the passing cold front. 
Mainly IFR CIGs will linger through the night with some improvements 
at times for the lower elevations to MVFR. Reductions to VSBYs with 
heavier showers is also expected, down to MVFR. 

Outlook... 

Monday...MVFR/IFR with showers, improving to VFR across Western NY 
in the afternoon while lower conditions and showers persist east of 
Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a few showers likely, mainly late in the 
day across Western NY.

Wednesday through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderately strong low pressure over the central Great Lakes this 
morning, will move north to James Bay by tonight with a cold front 
moving east across the lower Great Lakes late this afternoon and 
tonight. Southerly winds will increase today ahead of the low, with 
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing on both Lake Erie and 
Lake Ontario. The largely offshore wind component will direct the 
higher wave action into the offshore and Canadian waters through 
most of the day today. 

Winds will veer to the west behind the cold front, then become WNW 
by Monday. Higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue 
on Lake Erie. WNW winds will ramp up again Monday as cold advection 
increases behind secondary low pressure moving north across Eastern 
NY. This will support high end Small Craft Advisories on both lakes 
at a minimum, with some risk of low end gales on Lake Ontario Monday 
afternoon and evening. 

Unsettled weather will continue through much of next week, with 
Small Craft Advisory conditions much of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for 
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/SW
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/SW/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock