731 
FXUS63 KJKL 191237
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
837 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potent cold front will bring strong wind gusts as it crosses 
  the area late tonight through midday Sunday.

- Following the front, expect blustery conditions with gusty
  showers and falling temperatures on Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday 
  afternoon as a second, but dry cold front moves through.

- Much colder air will settle in for the middle of the week,
  leading to the potential for frost in sheltered valleys on
  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025

Latest obs have been blended into the forecast, not resulting in
any substantive changes. However, have noted that the 06Z run of
the NAM now shows some potential for thunder (weak instability
with parcels rising past -20C) this afternoon as the upper trough
axis pushes in from the west with a slight negative tilt. There
has been thunder upstream with this feature early this morning 
over southern IL, western KY, and southwest IN. This will be
monitored, and day shift may need to put a mention of thunder back
into the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 617 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025

A potent but progressive upper level trough and its associated
surface cold front are approaching from the west early this
morning. A tight pressure gradient is bringing warm/moist
advection along and ahead of the front, with mixed locations
unusually mild in the lower 70s. Combined with the dynamics at 
play, it's resulting in a combination of stratiform rain and 
locally heavier showers accompanying the system. Limited mixing is
also allowing for gusts of 30-35 mph. It's questionable whether
anyone actually makes Wind Advisory criterion of 40 mph today, 
but the advisory has been left to ride with a mention of some 
isolated gusts near 40 mph. Forecast soundings suggest that
convection will be capped too low for thunderstorms today, and
only showers are being carried in the forecast at this point. Cold
mid level temps will allow for showers to persist behind the cold
front late today, especially in our northeastern counties. Even 
these will die out tonight after enough drying and mid level 
warming occur in the wake of the upper level trough.

The pressure gradient will relax tonight as surface high pressure
builds eastward over the Tennessee Valley. Latest model runs show
enough cold air advection and drying by dawn for a bit of frost 
in the coldest valleys. Ridging at the surface and aloft passing 
through on Monday will give mainly clear skies allowing for a 
decent warm-up into the 60s in the cool air mass. 

The next upper level trough and cold front will approach from the
west on Monday night, with warm air advection kicking in ahead of
the front. This will hold ridges, open terrain and western valleys
milder. However, eastern valleys are still expected to decouple,
and again lead to a frost potential.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 647 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025

Another cold front associated with a strong but progressive upper
trough will be bearing down on the area from the northwest at the
start of the long term period. Unlike the previous front, this one
will have much less moisture to work with. Never the less, the 
strength of the system still could squeeze out a few showers. 

As the upper trough shifts to our northeast, surface high 
pressure builds in the from the west behind the cold front on 
Tuesday night through Thursday. Our cool and dry air mass will be
accompanied by fair weather during this time, with a frost 
potential of varying extent each night Tuesday night through 
Thursday night. 

Yet another system is expected to approach at the end of the week.
This one is an upper level wave in the southern stream of what is
expected to become a split flow regime. Low level flow ahead of
the surface reflection of the system is expected to be more
effective at pulling in moisture, although our highest POP will
probably not occur until after the current long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 836 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025

A cold front moving through from west to east will bring wind, 
showers, and a period of sub-VFR conditions today. 

Showers and gusty winds are currently arriving from the west. 
MVFR conditions are expected to develop after the precip arrives.
Winds gusts of 30-35 kts are forecast during the day. 

Showers will taper off from west southwest to east northeast this
evening and ceilings will break up, leaving VFR conditions to
return. Winds will also diminish.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.


&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL