723 
FXUS66 KMTR 191119
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
419 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

 - Warmer and drier weather with light to moderate 
   offshore winds in the higher elevations through Tuesday.

 - An increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents returns on 
   Monday, with the potential for high surf midweek. 

 - Slightly cooler conditions begin midweek with unsettled weather
   to return Friday into the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(Today and tonight)

Stratus hugs most of the Bay Area and Central Coast coastlines this 
morning, with fog and low clouds dipping into the Salinas Valley. 
Visibilities have dropped at Half Moon Bay, Monterey, Salinas, and 
Fort Ord, but the question remains: how long will they hold? The 
shallow marine layer has started crack over the waters, with pockets 
of clearing. The marine layer is expected to be around 500ft or 
less, likely keeping the reduced visibilities and low cloud to the 
coast. Should continued visibility of less than a quarter mile 
continue, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed this morning. Fog and 
low cloud should mix out by mid to late morning, leading to a mostly 
clear skies for much of the region. Temperatures will climb into the 
mid to upper 70s for any of the Bay Area Valleys, while Central 
Coast Valleys range from the low 70s near the coast to the mid 70s 
to mid 80s for interior locations. Near the coast, or should you be 
stuck under coastal clouds, highs will be range from the 60s to near 
70 degrees.  

Tonight, offshore winds will become more apparent, especially for 
higher elevations across the Bay Area. Gusts should be around 20-30 
mph and linger through Monday morning. This should keep the marine 
layer at bay, generally 500 feet or less. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 214 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue into Tuesday as upper level ridging 
nosing into California slowly retreats due to the a cut off low 
moving into the region. Sensible weather generally remains the same, 
with warmer temperatures and light offshore flow holding steady. 
Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the pattern will begin to change with 
flow becoming onshore and high temperatures dipping below their 
seasonal averages for this time year. Temperatures moderate to near 
normal or just below normal for the end of the week, with the marine 
layer likely re-establishing to about 1000 to 2000ft.

After that, we turn our eyes to the much anticipated rain event. 
Models and ensembles continue to favor rain across much of the 
region; however, there are still quite a variability in the timing 
of the system and its strength. Be sure to stay tuned to the 
forecast and given the nice weather, now is the time to make sure 
gutters are cleared, outdoor objects are secured, and debris over 
storm drains are cleared. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Fog and low stratus is being observed across the immediate coast, 
through the Golden Gate into the Berkeley region, and the Monterey 
Bay region. A compressed marine layer should keep the stratus from 
coming in too far inland, but stratus is moving towards OAK and 
there is a moderate confidence that they will see fog and low 
ceilings tonight. Fog should mix out later in the morning with a 
light onshore breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Towards 
the evening, stratus development will once again be limited to the 
immediate coast, especially south of HAF, with strong offshore flow 
aloft resulting in a chance for LLWS across the North Bay and Bay 
Area towards the end of the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence of VFR through the 
TAF period with a very low but nonzero chance of fog developing at 
the terminal this morning. Any fog or low stratus that develops 
should mix out by around 17-18Z with breezy west winds in the 
afternoon. Winds diminish in the evening, with strong offshore flow 
aloft leading to LLWS concerns after midnight through the end of the 
TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... LIFR stratus and fog is expected to linger 
at the terminals through 17-18Z. Breezy onshore winds develop in the 
afternoon, with moderate confidence of stratus returning to the 
terminals as the winds diminish this evening. Confidence in stratus 
timing is lower and it is possible that stratus stays right at the 
edge of the terminals for a few hours this evening before moving
in.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM PDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Fresh to strong northwest breezes will develop through the day
with occasional gale force gusts across the northern outer waters.
A new northwest swell moves in tonight, combining with the wind
waves to build very rough conditions across the exposed coastal
waters. Moderate to rough seas persist across the outer waters
through the next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday 
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Monday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday 
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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