332 
FXUS63 KIWX 191037
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
637 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will be heavy at times, especially early today.

- An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Turning much colder during the middle of this week with frost
  likely and freezing temperatures possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

A large area of rain was spreading north into northern Indiana. The 
heaviest rain from this area is expected to fall east of where the 
heaviest rain fell earlier last night. Rainfall amounts of more than 
an inch in less then an hour will likely bring the potential for some
brief, localized urban flooding today. 

An upper level trof was beginning to become negatively tilted from
the Upper Midwest to west of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Mid level
winds on the back side of the upper level trof were expected to
become very strong near the base of the trof with GFS forecast 
wind speed overs 110 kts. A strong cold front associated with
this system will move east across the area today and bring 
gusty winds. Current thinking is winds will stay below advisory 
criteria with the stronger sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph 
with some gusts reaching 40 mph, especially near Lake Michigan. 

After a brief respite from the windy conditions Monday, wind
gusts from 25 to 35 mph are likely again Tuesday afternoon with
the passage of another cold front. The air behind this system
will be the coldest so far this fall season. Early morning lows
by Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

A large plume of moisture was associated with the upper level 
system that was becoming negatively tilted. A cold front was 
just northwest of FWA as indicated by a line of showers and a 
wind shift from the southwest to the northwest. For the TAFs,
started with an MVFR with IFR TEMPO groups at both locations 
for lower conditions during the heavier showers. Clouds should
scattered out at SBN during the afternoon and later during the
evening at FWA. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Skipper