170 
FXUS63 KJKL 190639
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
239 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potent cold front will bring strong wind gusts as it crosses 
  the area late tonight through midday Sunday.

- Following the front, expect blustery conditions with gusty
  showers and falling temperatures on Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday 
  afternoon as a second, but dry cold front moves through.

- Much colder air will settle in for the middle of the week,
  leading to the potential for frost in sheltered valleys on
  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as we await the arrival of the convection from the west and
associated stronger winds. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows a potent low pressure area and cold front 
heading toward Kentucky from the northwest. This has provided 
southerly winds today and warm to near record high temperatures 
along with plenty of sunshine in the afternoon. Currently 
temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s most places with a 
few valleys reporting readings in the 60s. Meanwhile, amid south 
winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to 
lower 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest 
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the 
PoPs per the latest CAMs guidance as the front and its gusty 
prefrontal trough move into the area late tonight. These small 
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with 
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Temperatures are summer-like across eastern Kentucky, ranging in the 
upper 70s to mid 80s across most of the CWA. A developing cumulus 
field and a warm southwesterly breeze add to the summer- like feel. 
However, significant changes are on the way. The latest surface 
analysis shows high pressure, centered off the Carolinas, departing 
into the Atlantic, while a cold front approaches from the west, 
extending from Lake Superior to the upper Red River Valley of the 
South. This front precedes a digging 500 hPa trough over the Central 
and Northern Plains that is phasing with southern stream energy over 
the Southern Plains.

This upper-level trough will translate eastward and tilt negatively, 
digging deeply across the Ohio Valley on Sunday before quickly 
pulling away to the northeast on Sunday night. As a result, a wave 
of low pressure will develop along the cold front over Missouri or 
Illinois this evening, and then rapidly deepen to ~990 mb as it 
races northeastward into Hudson Bay by Sunday night. A potent warm 
conveyor belt jet will lift across our region late tonight and 
Sunday morning with the 15Z RAP13 showing an ~50 to 60 kt 850 hPa 
jet max passing over the middle of the Commonwealth. Very weak mid-
level lapse rates will result in minimal instability ahead of the 
front late tonight. However, sufficient mid-level ascent should 
force light precipitation to fall into the dry sub-cloud layer, 
leading to evaporative cooling. The resultant steepening of low-
level lapse rates is expected to allow some momentum to transfer to 
the surface ahead of and along the leading edge of the frontal 
precipitation. GFS mixed-layer momentum transfer guidance from 
BUFKIT supports advisory-level wind gusts (at least 40 mph) near and 
west of I-75 and along and west of the Pottsville Escarpment. 
Consequently, a Wind Advisory has been issued for those counties. 
Locations east of the Wind Advisory will also see gusty winds 
(perhaps even breaching 40 mph on the most exposed ridgetops) but 
the low-level jet wont be as strong and the more sheltered nature of 
the deeper valleys should keep wind gusts below advisory thresholds 
for an overwhelming majority of the population. Even so, wind gusts 
exceeding 25 mph will still be strong enough to blow around 
unsecured objects, thus warranting an strong wind SPS issuance.

The gusty winds should temporarily diminish later Sunday morning as 
the rainfall saturates and stabilizes the low-levels and the warm 
conveyor belt jet exits to the northeast. Behind the cold front, a 
broad area of 30 to 40 knot west northwest winds at 850 hPa will 
usher in a much colder air mass -- 850 hPa temperatures start the 
day near 12-13C but drop to 1-3C by sunset. Under this strong CAA 
regime, steepening low-level lapse rates will support efficient 
momentum transfer, leading to renewed westerly wind gusts of 25 to 
35 mph for much of the area from mid-afternoon Sunday through mid-
evening. These blustery winds will be combined at times with quick-
hitting rain showers. The showers and strong winds will exit to the 
northeast from late Sunday evening into the early overnight hours as 
the upper-level trough pulls away. Rapid drying can be expected 
behind the departing showers as heights rise rapidly late in the 
night.

In terms of sensible weather, a late summer-like evening is expected 
across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures falling through the 70s 
and into the 60s. Winds in sheltered valleys may become calm for 
several hours after sunset before increasing again after midnight 
across the entire area. The strongest winds are expected near and 
west of I-75 and along and west of the Pottsville Escarpment between 
3 AM and 11 AM Sunday. Southwesterly gusts to 40 mph are expected in 
this area and isolated stronger gusts cannot be ruled out. Further 
to the south and east, gusts will mainly be in the 25 to 35 mph 
range, though a few of the most exposed ridgetops could still 
experience a gust over 40 mph. After the winds become gusty, showers 
will gradually move in from the west, eventually leading to a 
stabilization of the low levels and a decrease in wind speeds. Once 
the initial showers depart--around 9 AM for Lake Cumberland and the 
Bluegrass, and 1 PM in the far east--westerly winds will become 
gusty again for several hours, with speeds generally in the 25 to 35 
mph range. With those renewed winds, there will also be additional 
shower activity, and temperatures will fall through the 60s and into 
the 50s. Showers diminish from southwest to northeast Sunday 
evening, with winds slackening and skies clearing. Temperatures are 
expected to continue falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. Some of 
the coldest spots near Lake Cumberland and on the Bluegrass could 
briefly dip into the mid-30s toward daybreak on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Monday, height rises are expected across the area, as breif ridging 
builds into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in lieu of the exiting 
weekend system, to the Northeast. Fall like temperatures continue 
across Eastern Kentucky, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. 
Evening temperatures will likely cool into the low to mid 40s.

Beyond Monday, an upper level low over the Northern Plains will 
mature over the Upper Great Lakes, leading to a cold front 
developing later Tuesday morning/early afternoon, over the Ohio and 
Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Model soundings show moist mid-
levels, with some drying at the lower levels. Steep lapse rates 
should allow for good mixing resulting in breezy conditions. Winds 
could gust 25-30 mph during the afternoon. While shower chances are 
low, odds are this will be a dry cold front, due to the drier air 
present at the surface. Temperatures  will climb into the mid to 
upper 60s, under partly cloudy skies, and relatively light southwest 
winds. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for valley 
locations to decouple heading into the evening. Valley locations 
could dip into the mid to upper 30s with ridges staying in the lower 
40s. Patchy areas of frost could develop in the coldest locations. 

Wednesday and Thursday the are remains in quasi-zonal flow. 
Conditions will be similar each day, with afternoon temperatures 
peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s, with westerly winds. Winds may 
be slightly breezier Wednesday as the area is still somewhat under 
the influence of an upper low to the north. Gusts 20-25 mph are 
possible. At night, light winds and clear skies allow for good 
radiational cooling. Lows in the lower to mid 30s each night have 
the formation of frost becoming increasingly likely Wednesday, and 
Thursday nights.

Friday and Saturday, another system is modeled to come out of the 
Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is expected to 
bring increasing clouds during Friday, and perhaps the next chance 
of showers on Saturday. Temperatures generally stay in the mid to 
upper 60s during the afternoons and in the mid 40s at night. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025

A cold front moving through from west to east will bring wind,
showers, and a period of sub-VFR conditions. 

Showers and gusty winds will arrive from the west early in the
morning, with largely MVFR conditions expected to develop. Before
the winds pick up at the surface, some places may have a period of
low level wind shear. Once winds pick up, gusts should increase to
30-35 kts during the day. 

Showers will taper off from west southwest to east northeast this
evening and ceilings will break up, leaving VFR conditions to
return. Winds will also diminish.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL