933 
FXUS64 KBMX 190632
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
132 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for a severe storm or two
   through early this morning for part of central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025

Through early this morning:

As of 1 am CT Sunday, a batch of showers and thunderstorms was
advancing across the Gulf Coast region. VWP data from KBMX radar
isn't too dissimilar from earlier forecast data, though 
instability values are running a touch under already lackluster 
projections. The infrared satellite presentation is also quite
degraded. In all, this is resulting in less robust activity 
across our area compared to a few hours ago in Mississippi where a
tornado and straight-line wind gusts were observed. We'll watch 
for any deviations from the general theme of beneficial rains and 
pockets of ~40 mph wind gusts through the early-morning hours; the
severe threat remains quite low.

Sunday afternoon and beyond:

High pressure will begin nudging into the region this afternoon,
resulting in a clearing sky from west to east. Northwest winds
will blow 10-15 mph sustained, gusting near 25 mph; this
breeziness will begin to relax around sundown. After Sunday's
frontal passage and northwest flow, a chill will be in the air
Monday morning with 40s forecast across central Alabama. There is a
medium chance of a few of the typically cooler locations near the
278 corridor reaching the upper 30s.

There will be a brief period of warmer weather during the day on
Tuesday as a front approaches. While the official forecast is
rain-free at this time, GFS/ECMWF ensembles show some potential 
for a few showers. Post-frontal flow will bring another surge of
drier and cooler air for the rest of the week. Morning low
temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s, with Thursday
showing a medium to high chance for upper 30s across the 278 
corridor and even some sheltered locations elsewhere across 
central Alabama.

A shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains later this
week may offer another chance for showers and thunderstorms 
heading into this weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025

A large batch of showers and thunderstorms will move across 
central Alabama through early this morning with reductions in
ceilings/visibility, plus gusty winds. While VFR conditions will
return to central Alabama from west to east, a few wrap-around 
showers are expected for part of the afternoon hours, mainly 
across northeast Alabama.

Southerly winds early this morning will become northwesterly by 
mid to late morning. Speeds will run 10-15 knots sustained, gusts 
near 22 knots, and then decrease around sunset.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early Sunday
morning, aside from a few wrap-around showers across northeast
Alabama into the afternoon. Southerly winds will switch to the
northwest, remaining breezy and gusty.

Post-frontal flow plus daytime heating will push MinRHs Monday 
afternoon to a mid 20s to mid 30s range, though there is some 
potential for pockets of lower 20s. Dew points look to increase 
slightly on Tuesday ahead of a front that will either be rain-free
or have limited shower activity, so RHs should remain okay. Dry, 
post-frontal flow will push dew points down for the rest of the 
week, resulting in MinRHs during the afternoon falling as low as 
the lower to middle 20s for a good chunk of central Alabama on 
Wednesday and Thursday. MinRHs are currently forecast to be in the
30s on Friday as dew points take a slight upward bump ahead of an
approaching weather system. Winds should average less than 10 mph
from day to day, though a couple days may offer afternoon winds
near 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  41  71  43 /  60   0   0   0 
Anniston    75  44  73  45 /  70   0   0   0 
Birmingham  73  46  72  48 /  50   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  76  46  76  48 /  20   0   0   0 
Calera      77  46  76  47 /  50   0   0   0 
Auburn      78  48  74  48 / 100   0   0   0 
Montgomery  80  46  75  45 /  70   0   0   0 
Troy        80  47  74  45 /  90   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite