095 
AXNT20 KNHC 190601
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell Event: Northerly swell generated from a 
hurricane force low over the Atlantic waters well north of the 
discussion area will generate rough to very rough seas over the 
western Atlantic today and in the north central Atlantic waters 
through late Sun night. Seas in excess of 12 ft and greater, with
period of 12-14 seconds will continue to spread southeastward 
today, covering the waters north of 25N between 43W and 70W by 
tonight. The swell will then start to subside over the discussion 
waters allowing for seas to lower below 12 ft tonight. Seas with 
this swell will peak to near 18 ft over the waters north of about 
30N between 50W and 65W today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W/25W 
from from 02N to 14N moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from
08N to 11N and within 30 nm of the wave axis from 05N to 06N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W from 02N 
to 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 05N to 07N.

An Atlantic tropical wave, Invest AL98, has its axis near 55W 
from 04N to 18N, with low pressure of 1013 mb along the axis near 
13N. This system is quickly moving westward at about 22 kt. 
Satellite imagery shows a concentrated and persistent area of 
numerous strong convection that has become quite symmetrical in 
appearance during the past few hours from 10N to 14N between 53W 
and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave and 
low from 12N to 14N between 53W and 59W. A 0129Z Metop-C ASCAT 
satellite data pass from last night captured an extensive area of
20 to 25 kt winds within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. The
ASCAT pass indicates several 30 kt wind barbs embedded within the
20 to 25 kt winds. Environmental conditions are expected to limit
development of the system during the next couple of days as it 
quickly westward bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the 
Windward Islands beginning later today and continuing through Mon 
morning. By the middle to latter part of the week, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could form while the system slows down 
over the central Caribbean Sea.

Ahead of the previous described tropical wave, a tropical wave
has crosses into the eastern Caribbean Sea near 62W south of 18N.
It is moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows 
isolated showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of the
wave south of 14N. Latest scatterometer satellite data over the 
eastern Caribbean reveals mostly fresh northeast to east winds 
across and near the wave axis.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and 
continues southwestward to near 06N25W. Segments of the ITCZ 
extend from 06N26W to 05N37W, and from 06N38W to 04N50W. Aside 
from convection related to tropical waves as discussed in 
the section above, scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered offshore the southeastern
U.S. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to the 
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are south 
of 26N reaching eastward to the Straits of Florida while fresh 
southeast to south winds are north of 26N. Seas are 4 to 5 ft with
these winds, except for slightly higher seas 5 to 6 ft in the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere under light
to gentle southeast to south winds, except for moderate south to 
southwest winds offshore Texas to near 95W, and for moderate
southeast winds just south of Tampico to 20N and east from there 
to near 96W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from far southeastern 
Louisianan southward for about 60 nm between 89W and 90W. A moist
and convergent low-level southeast to south wind flow is most 
likely helping to sustain this activity.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf into Sun. A cold 
front will move into the NW Gulf this morning, then slide 
southeastward across the rest of the basin through Mon. Moderate 
N to NE winds are expected north of the cold front, with locally 
fresh winds possible north of 26N into Mon morning. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas over the Gulf early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between an area of broad high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in the Caribbean 
and in northern South America is allowing for generally moderate 
to fresh trade winds east of about 76W and for gentle to moderate 
east to southeast trade winds west of 76W. Latest altimeter 
satellite data passes show seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly 
higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the northeast part of the basin and 4 
to 6 ft south of 15N between 64W and 68W.

Satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N and 
west of 84W, including the Yucatan Channel and coastal sections of
the northeast section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are north of 18N and east of 84W, 
including over portions of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This 
activity is mainly a result of lingering moisture from an old 
frontal trough, further aided by convergent trade wind flow. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are impacting 
southern Windward Islands from St Vincent to Grenada, ahead of the
approaching tropical waves. Clusters of these thunderstorms are 
training in lines from east to west, and could bring heavy 
rainfall to these islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over
the south-central and eastern sections of the basin today 
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Long-period
north swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic passages
and over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles Sun into early 
next week. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area 
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are 
expected to limit development during the next couple of days as 
the system moves quickly westward bringing heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds to the Windward Islands beginning later today and 
continuing through Mon morning. By the middle to latter part of 
the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
while the system slows down over the central Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details 
on a large swell event that will impact some sections of the 
north-central waters through the weekend, and details about the
tropical wave/Invest AL98W near 55W.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N45W southwestward to 25N55W
and to 23N61W, where it becomes a stationary front to the 
vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along and near the cold fornt. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are along and near the stationary front,
with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 
20N to 22N between 71W and 73W and near the coast of Hispaniola
and eastern Cuba. To the NW of the frontal boundary, a 1021 mb 
high is just north of the area near 32N75W, with its associated 
broad ridge covering the waters west of 75W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the frontal boundary is resulting in fresh 
to strong west to northwest winds behind the front to near 66W and
north of 28N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are along and east 
of the front to near 44W north of 26N. Seas exceed 8 ft north of 
21N between a line from 31N40W to 21N67W and the Bahamas, and also
north and northeast of the Bahamas. To the east of the front in 
the eastern part of the Atlantic, a 1022 mb high is analyzed at 
27N37W, with its associated broad ridging present over the waters 
north of 19N east of about 50W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
are from 21N to 31N between 36W and 47W along with seas of 4 to 5
ft west to northwest swell. Otherwise, outside of the area of 
winds and seas associated with Invest AL98 as described in the 
Special Features section, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas 
of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are south of 20N between 32W and 61W. 
Gentle to moderate northeast winds are elsewhere, except for 
moderate to fresh northeast winds from 20N to 30N between 24W and 
36W. Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft over these waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become 
stationary along roughly 22N early today, where is will gradually
dissipate. Fresh west to northwest winds over the northeast part 
of the area will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds today. 
Widespread rough seas will continue north of 20N and east of 77W 
through early this afternoon, with rough seas expanding 
southeastward through the Greater Antilles Atlantic Passages 
today. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 
25N and east of 70W through Sun afternoon. Rough seas will slowly 
subside from west to east Sun into early next week. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are expected 
in the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida through
this morning as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic 
this weekend. A series of cold fronts are forecast to move off the
coast of the southeastern United States early next week, leading 
to increasing north winds offshore of Florida. 

$$
Aguirre