206 
ABNT20 KNHC 190535
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the 
Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers 
and thunderstorms.  Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that 
the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds 
of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple 
of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, 
bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands 
beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning.  By the 
middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form while the system slows down over the central 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema