542 
FXUS64 KTSA 190142
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
842 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 839 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - Severe weather likely along and east of Highway 69 this afternoon...large
   hail and damaging winds primary threats. 

 - A strong cold front will bring gusty winds and a brief cool down 
   Sunday, followed by breezy and warm conditions again Monday, 
   resulting in limited fire weather danger. 

 - More seasonable temperatures are expected Tue-Fri with a chance
   of rain returning late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Scattered storms continue from NW AR into SE OK ahead of the
advancing cold front. Early evening severe storms have trended
weaker over the past hour and the overall severe potential is
likely to be ending across the region, however a few pulse strong
storms could remain into the overnight hours. Updated forecast has
followed trends of more storm coverage further south and adjusted
for observed temp trends. Overnight precip coverage is expected to
trend down after midnight from SE OK into NW AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight) 
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Numerous storms have developed near and east Highway 75 in eastern 
OK as strong forcing from potent mid level wave continues to spread 
east. Environment ahead of these storms will continue to become more 
conducive to severe weather into the afternoon as they expand into 
far eastern OK and western AR. Analyzed wind profiles do show quite 
a bit of veering within a strong deep layer field, however some 
subtle backing has been noted at 925mb. These profiles suggest 
mainly a hail and wind threat with a generally messy storm mode, 
however some low level backing is still possible in the terrain, and 
along any subtle boundaries that may exist from early morning 
convection. With that there remains a non-zero threat of a tornado, 
especially should a more organized storms develops. 

In addition, there is strong moisture transport from SE OK into NW 
AR with Precipitable Water above 1.5 inches in the corridor east of 
about Highway 69. Dry antecedent conditions preclude a broader 
flash flood threat, though at least a localized threat of heavy 
rainfall exits in the event of repeated cells training given the 
high rain rates possible.

The severe threat will diminish from west to east this afternoon, 
and should be mostly east of the local forecast area by 3-4 PM. 
Otherwise, and area of trailing stratiform rain with a few embedded 
lightning strikes will follow, and additional scattered storms 
possible along the cold front across far northeast OK into northwest 
AR late this afternoon into this evening. HRRR has continued to 
trend upward with coverage of this activity, however given anticipated 
limits to instability, this is not expected to be severe.

And finally, winds behind cold front will pick up considerably out 
of the northwest for several hours, with gusts in the 25-35 mph for 
a few hours behind the front passage. A few gusts in the high 
terrain could potentially exceed 40 mph. Noticeably cooler air will 
also arrive with temperatures eventually falling into the mid to 
upper 40s, with lower 50s in southeast OK, while winds diminish. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A pleasant fall day expected Sunday after a cool start, with highs 
ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies and light 
winds. The progressive upper pattern will result in a quick change in 
wind direction back to southerly by Sunday night, with substantial 
increase in speeds by Monday. This will raise fire weather concerns 
slightly as the airmass remains quite dry and winds gust in the 25-
35 mph range, but conditions will be tempered in many areas by 
today's rainfall. Wind should drop off Monday afternoon as another 
cold front approaches, and moves into northeast OK by late 
afternoon. Moisture return should be insufficient for any precip 
chances with this front.

Behind this front, temperatures for the remainder of next week 
should average out near normal. The next rain and thunder chances 
will arrive with a weaker upper level low Thursday and Friday. Next 
weekend looks dry at the moment with some indications of a strong 
western trough developing beyond this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward through
the afternoon hours with thunder impacts at TAF sites diminishing
from west to east this afternoon. Convection should clear the area
by around 21-22Z. Occasional MVFR or brief IFR conditions will be
possible within the strongest storms, mainly over northwest
Arkansas through late afternoon. A cold front will push into
northeast Oklahoma this evening, with additional thunderstorm
development possible along the boundary across NE OK from 00-04Z
this evening with chances below mentionable currently for NW AR
sites. Gusty northwesterly winds will also follow the frontal 
boundary during the overnight periods before dying down somewhat
toward daybreak tomorrow. Skies will also clear overnight from
west to east with the frontal passage.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  69  53  83 /  30   0   0   0 
FSM   51  70  47  80 /  40   0   0   0 
MLC   48  71  51  82 /  30   0   0   0 
BVO   44  68  48  82 /  20   0   0   0 
FYV   43  65  44  77 /  50   0   0   0 
BYV   45  63  46  74 /  60   0   0   0 
MKO   47  68  50  81 /  30   0   0   0 
MIO   45  66  48  77 /  60   0   0   0 
F10   45  70  49  83 /  30   0   0   0 
HHW   51  71  48  81 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04