National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDSHV
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-18 23:31 UTC
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732 FXUS64 KSHV 182331 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Early afternoon radar coverage is expanding quickly over our Western fringe of TX and OK Counties with lightning N of I-30. - Cold frontal passage will end the threat with cool NW winds gusting over I-30 before midnight, I-20 and Parishes predawn. - Normal Fall temps for mid to late October will remain under the Westerlies all week with two more opportunities for rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The Tornado Watch #624 continues for deep E TX, Toledo Bend Country and northeast LA until 9PM. Basically areas ahead of the cool outflow are hanging on to heat with a line of thunderstorms primarily along a line from Jacksonville TX to Shreveport and Bossier to Farmerville and Strong, AR. A weak area of showers is crossing I-30 now with the cold front set to move out of OK into W AR and NE TX by midnight and then down I-49 overnight. Get your jackets ready for the late night and early rise on Sunday. /24/ && .UPDATE... Issued at 452 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Well movement to the E/NE continues to make good progress as we have cleared another handful of NE TX Counties from Watch 624 and added Union Co. and our remaining Parishes until 9PM. We will address more cancellations and perhaps time extention in our next update. /24/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We had a warm start with a new record warm min at 71 for SHV which is likely to hold through 1am tonight. The previous record was 69 back in 1985. We are looking at our partly cloudy skies filling with more mid and high clouds now from developing convection. Our 18Z sounding will be available shortly with a bit of weak cap at 700mb along and east of I-49. Freezing level has dropped from 148 to 140 and this will help with hail production in large towers. We are running all through the 80s now with still some right to 90 readings for highs. SPC will get a look at the sounding soon too with a watch looming for much of our area. The chance for all modes remains even better in some regard as we had no rain around in the middeck this am to help slow destabilization. Our first SPS is now active for SE OK and a watch and subsequent warnings will likely continue this mid to late afternoon and early evening. Overnight the weather will be exiting stage right around midnight with clearing skies and a beauty of day to wrap up the weekend. We are still looking at very seasonal temperatures for much of the new week and still a couple more chances for light rain showers Tuesday south of I-20 and then more widespread activity with showers and isolated thunderstorms by late week. Zones will be out shortly with temp updates for a few, no changes to PoPs, but Weather will have the new coming watch information going forward into tonight. /24/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 For the ArkLaTex terminals, Thunder has passed KELD and KSHV but that may not be all with the cold front shifting winds to NW late this evening across all terminals. So far wind damage has been the bulk of severe threat and that will wind down with sunset. Variable winds behind the outflow will be shifting to N/NW with fropa and continue 10-15KT through this cycle. Cloud decks will be clearing overnight as the mid level short wave exits AR. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Spotter activation is soon expected this afternoon through this evening with strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front later this evening. Prefrontal and frontal convection is modeled well in the HRRR through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 61 74 51 81 / 80 0 0 0 MLU 63 74 46 78 / 100 0 0 0 DEQ 49 71 42 79 / 50 0 0 0 TXK 55 72 48 81 / 50 0 0 0 ELD 54 71 44 77 / 90 0 0 0 TYR 56 73 51 84 / 50 0 0 0 GGG 56 73 48 82 / 60 0 0 0 LFK 61 77 49 84 / 70 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...24