190 
FXUS65 KFGZ 182255
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 PM MST Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure is expected to bring a gradual warming 
trend, dry weather and light winds through Tuesday. Then, a 
passing low-pressure system is forecast to bring cooler 
temperatures, breezier winds, and a 10-30% chance of light rain 
showers around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...High pressure begins to build 
across northern AZ today, bringing a period of pleasant conditions 
with warming temperatures. Expect clear skies, light winds, and 
daytime highs near or above seasonal normals. The ridge will remain 
firmly in place and pleasant conditions are expected to continue 
through Tuesday.

Late Tuesday through Thursday...Clusters are still in agreement 
that a low currently off the coast Baja California will finally 
push northeastward across northern AZ. This system is positioned 
to pull up some moisture with southerly/southwesterly flow as it 
approaches. Precipitation chances are currently not too high at 
any one location, and there is generally a 10-30% chance for 
showers across the region starting Tuesday evening. Elevated winds
can also be expected as the trough approaches, but right now they
are expected to remain below Advisory thresholds. Showers may 
linger as late as Thursday morning, before dry conditions return.

Friday and beyond...There is agreement in at least a brief period
with dry conditions and lighter winds after the trough passes. 
Long term models are suggesting the arrival of another trough just
beyond the forecast period, but this will be discussed more in 
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 19/00Z through Monday 20/00Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. There will be areas of northeast 
winds 10-15 kts between 04Z-15Z south of the Mogollon Rim 
including KSEZ. Otherwise, look for light and variable winds, 
mainly less than 10 kts, through the night. South to southwest 
winds at 5-15 kts will develop by Sunday afternoon. 

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/00Z through Wednesday 22/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Look for light and variable winds mainly less than 
10 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry conditions with slightly 
above normal temperatures. S-SW winds 10-15 mph Sunday, W-NW 5-15 
mph Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm temperatures continue Tuesday, 
becoming slightly cooler Wednesday and Thursday. Slight chance of 
showers moving into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 
Winds SE-S 10-15 mph on Tuesday, SW 10-20 mph Wednesday, NW 10-15 
mph Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% Tuesday, 25-35% Wednesday 
and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff