916 
FXUS64 KMOB 181706
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1206 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late tonight
   into early Sunday morning. A few storms may become strong to
   severe with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday. Before
   heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow 
   the posted beach warning flags.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm portion of
   the marine area tonight into early Sunday morning with another
   period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms including
damaging winds and tornadoes exists tonight through early Sunday
morning. An upper trough continues to amplify across the central
U.S. with upper difluence gradually overspreading our forecast
area as we head into tonight. Ample warm air advection will be
ongoing ahead of this, bringing in upper 60's to lower 70's
dewpoints into the area. Ample shear for organized strong to 
severe thunderstorms will be in place tonight across the region, 
with hodographs becoming increasingly large and curved as the 
evening progresses. Ahead of the eventual QLCS and any discrete 
thunderstorm activity along the potential pre-frontal trough we 
can expect around 200 m2/s2 of sfc-1km and sfc-3km SRH to be 
present in tandem with increasing surface based and mixed layer 
instability values approaching 500 to locally 1,500j/kg. This will
set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete 
activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and 
tornadoes. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms 
would be from roughly midnight through 8 AM ahead of the QLCS. The
QLCS is expected to begin to enter our southeastern Mississippi 
and far northwestern Alabama counties between 1 AM and 3 AM, 
spreading east to the I-65 corridor between 3 AM and 6 AM, and 
exiting the forecast area to the east between 6 AM and 9 AM.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a High risk of rip
currents will continue through the rest of the day today into
the day Sunday. A cold front works its way across the area Sunday,
helping to bring offshore winds and gradually reducing the rip 
current risk to a Moderate risk by Sunday night and a Low risk by 
Monday. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions 
and follow the posted beach warning flags.

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much cooler and
drier airmass moves into the area. This will be further reinforced
by another cold front that moves across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs on any given day during
this period to top out in the middle to upper 70's, with the
exception of Tuesday where we warm into the lower to middle 80's
ahead of the next front. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence,
generally in the middle to upper 40's over the interior and lower
50's nearer the coast Sunday night into Monday night. Overnight
lows warm into the upper 40's to lower 50's over the interior and
lower to middle 50's nearer the coast Tuesday night. Our coolest 
and driest airmass of the season so far infiltrates the area 
Wednesday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to
middle 40's for most locations, upper 40's nearer the coast. We 
gradually follow a warming trend for overnight lows the rest of 
the week into the weekend.

With the consecutive passages of the aforementioned cold fronts,
much drier air will move into the area by mid-week. While there 
isn't explicit concern for meeting red flag watch/warning criteria
at this time across the region, afternoon relative humidity 
values dip into the 20 to 25 percent range. This combined with the
ongoing Moderate to Severe drought across the region may 
present some increased fire danger for portions of the area, 
perhaps highest on Wednesday with winds approaching 10 to 15 mph 
during the afternoon hours. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions will persist throughout the day today with a steady
southerly wind around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots. Ceilings will
steady lower through the afternoon and into the evening as a front
approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers will likely
develop mainly west of I-65 around midnight before a stronger 
line of storms moves across the area late tonight into Sunday 
morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely accompany the line of 
storms. A strong to severe storm with damaging winds could be 
possible as storms move from west to east across the area. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly winds steadily increase today, with 
a moderate to strong southerly flow expected tonight. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the 20 to 60 nautical mile
gulf waters this evening through daybreak Sunday. Small Craft 
should exercise caution in bays, sounds, and the 0 to 20 nautical 
mile gulf waters. Winds shift out of the northwest on Sunday in 
the wake of a cold front, becoming a moderate to occasionally 
strong northerly to northeasterly wind Sunday afternoon into 
Sunday night. Another Small Craft Advisory may be necessary for
the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters Sunday night. Winds 
gradually relax and turn easterly Monday afternoon into Monday 
night. A light to moderate offshore flow prevails Tuesday through 
Thursday in the wake of another cold front. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  83  50  76 /  80  40   0   0 
Pensacola   72  84  56  77 /  80  80   0   0 
Destin      71  84  58  77 /  60  90   0   0 
Evergreen   66  83  46  80 /  80  60   0   0 
Waynesboro  65  78  45  76 /  80  20   0   0 
Camden      64  80  46  75 /  80  50   0   0 
Crestview   67  83  49  78 /  60  80   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday 
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$