648 
FXUS61 KBOX 181114
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
714 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure takes a hold of the weather pattern this weekend 
bringing less wind and warmer afternoon temperatures. A Strong 
Frontal system begins to approach the region on Sunday, bringing
gusty southerly winds with above-normal temperatures. The
frontal system arrives Monday morning, bringing rain and a 
chance for thunderstorms. The pattern remains unsettled as we 
head into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper-level ridge axis moves directly overhead tomorrow, while high 
pressure just off shore of the Carolinas begins to retreat further 
south.  What this means for us is another pleasant day with highs 
again reaching the low to mid 60s.  Skies will start the day off 
mostly sunny, but high clouds begin to filter in by early afternoon 
as mid to upper level moisture arrives with the ridge axis.  It will 
be noticeably less windy today, with light and variable to calm 
winds across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Tonight:

Winds aloft begin to flip SW overnight, advecting in warmer air 
aloft with 850mb temps increasing to +11C.  Despite calm winds at 
the surface, high clouds and warming temps aloft will keep overnight 
lows a bit warmer tonight, in the mid to upper 40s.  Dewpoints 
gradually rise overnight, which could lead to patchy radiation fog 
in low-lying areas.

Tomorrow:

Mid-level winds continue to increase tomorrow ahead of a robust 
shortwave over the Ohio River Valley.  Once diurnal heating kicks in 
on Sunday, the winds aloft will begin to mix down, bringing 
southerly gusts of 15-20mph.  The southerly winds and WAA will help 
warm temps into the upper 60s to low 70s.  High clouds continue to 
stream in ahead of the shortwave with mainly filtered sunshine 
throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Looking unsettled next week as multiple shortwaves move through 
  the region. 

Timing questions remain with the passage of a cold front and 
secondary low pressure some time Sunday night into Monday. The 
17/12Z NAM was on the more progressive end of the guidance. 
Given the synoptic pattern of a high pressure to the east and a 
secondary low pressure along this front, favored a slower timing
that was more in line with the 17/12Z GFS and CMC solutions. 
This keeps most of Sunday dry, with showers arriving from west 
to east after sunset. Expecting showers across most of our 
region by the time of the Monday morning commute.

Beyond this time, the timing of showers remains uncertain. Most
of the 17/12Z guidance suite develops more of a mid level
cutoff, but cannot agree on where this cutoff will be. This
cutoff then appears like it will get kicked out over the
Atlantic by a more potent mid level trough midweek. This 
pattern typically leads to a prolonged period of unsettled 
weather. Looking like a trend toward below normal temperatures
next week with periods of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.


Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light and variable winds. Localized sea breezes develop
late morning to early afternoon. There may be some localized
ground and valley fog overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Sunday... High Confidence

VFR. Increasing southerly winds gusting up to 15-20 knots. 

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

VFR. Sea breeze kick in early in around 16z.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

VFR. Light winds under 5 knots.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... 

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance
SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

High pressure brings calm winds and decreasing seas today and 
tonight, ranging from 3-6 feet.  Winds gradually flip south on 
Sunday and begin increasing to 15-20knots on Sunday.  Seas remain 
around 3-6 feet

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, slight chance of
thunderstorms. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Belk/KP
AVIATION...McMinn/KP
MARINE...KP