393 
FXUS65 KFGZ 180805
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
105 AM MST Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure is expected to bring a gradual warming 
trend, dry weather and light winds through Tuesday. Then, a 
passing low-pressure system is forecast to bring cooler 
temperatures, breezier winds, and a 10-30% chance of light rain 
showers around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For today, high pressure will begin to build into 
the area from the southeast, bringing widespread sunny skies and 
light winds, with high temperatures 4-8 degrees warmer than 
yesterday.

From Sunday through Tuesday, confidence is that high pressure 
will remain in place across northern Arizona, leading to a 
continuation of dry weather and light winds. High temperatures are
forecast to be around 5 degrees above normal.

From late Tuesday through Thursday, models generally agree that a
low pressure system spinning off the coast of Baja California 
will lift to the northeast and cross northern Arizona. This system
still looks fairly low impact. Cooler temperatures and increasing
cloud cover will accompany this low, and the forecast continues 
to call for a 10-30% chance of rain showers. Precipitation amounts
are expected to be fairly light, as the ensemble spread varies 
from a trace among the driest members to as high as 0.3 inches 
among the wettest ones. Wind speeds are also expected to increase,
but even the windiest solutions only predict gusts in the 30-35 
mph range at the high elevations, so the chance of speeds 
exceeding Advisory levels is very low.

On average, long-term model solutions predict a short-lived 
return of high pressure and dry weather on Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/06Z through Sunday 19/06Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Light and variable winds, mainly less 
than 10 kts, through the period. 

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Light and variable winds, mainly less than 10 kts, 
through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually 
warming temperatures. NW-NE winds 5-10 mph Saturday, S-SW winds 
5-10 mph Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% both days.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions 
continue Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures decrease a few degrees on 
Wednesday with a 10-30% chance of light rainshowers moving into 
the area. Variable winds 5-10 mph on Monday, becoming SE-S 10-15 
mph on Tuesday, and SW 10-20 mph Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 
15-25% Monday and Tuesday, 20-35% Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff