586 
FXUS64 KBMX 180640
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms early Sunday
   morning for roughly the western two-thirds of central Alabama;
   a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms exists for locations
   near the Mississippi state line.

 - The primary severe weather threat early Sunday morning is
   damaging wind gusts with a secondary risk of a brief tornado 
   or two.
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Saturday night severe:

Water vapor imagery at 1 am Saturday shows a mid- to upper-level
trough over the Desert Southwest. This feature is progged to 
eject over the Southern Plains today, leading to the development 
of a large area of showers and thunderstorms, near an existing 
frontal axis, by midday across the Middle to Lower Mississippi 
River Valley. Based on current trends, a squall line should be in 
the vicinity of the Mississippi/Alabama state line around 
midnight/12 am Sunday, steadily moving eastward through the 
night with a much-needed drink of rain!

While a low-level jet around 40 knots and a veering wind profile
will promote a sheared environment, instability parameters are low;
this is a season-typical setup. All things considered, a few 
organized line segments and kinks, though perhaps brief in 
longevity, are forecast. This prospect should favor the western 
~two- thirds of central Alabama where ensembles show supportive 
weak CAPE/instability. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts 
along bowing line segments, though a brief tornado, or two, could 
occur with any kinks as well.

Rest of next week:

Clear weather will return from west to east on Sunday as the 
storm system quickly departs and high pressure begins to advance 
from the west. Northwsterly winds will be breezy and gusty on 
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday mornings will be chilly with low 
temperatures in the 40s across central Alabama. Guidance suggests,
overall, Monday will be the cooler of the two mornings, with a 
medium chance of some locations near the 278 corridor slipping 
into the upper 30s.

Surface low pressure skirting across the northern Great Lakes 
will drive a rain-free front across our area on Tuesday. This 
will give a reinforcing shot of drier air to the region, yielding 
a chilly morning, mild afternoon pattern. Morning lows are again 
forecast to be in the 40s across the region through the rest of 
the week, with guidance pinpointing Thursday as the coolest of 
this episode, showing a medium to high chance for some communities
near the 278 corridor to slip into the upper 30s once again. 
Parameters for frost are low at this time. Temperatures them 
moderate a bit heading into the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) 
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025

As of 06z Saturday, satellite shows a budding swath of low-level 
clouds just north of Montgomery. Guidance shows these clouds 
drifting northward through the early-morning hours with the 
potential to bring brief MVFR ceilings to EET and ASN (perhaps 
BHM, too). Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period with 
modest southerly winds kicking by 18z. A squall line will sweep
across Alabama overnight Saturday/early Sunday, so expect starkly
different TAFs with the 12z issuance. With arrival toward but
mainly after 06z Sunday, PROB30 SHRA is mentioned at TCL-BHM-EET 
as we lean in the direction of more active hours thereafter.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions are expected through nearly all of Saturday.
Southerly winds will average between 10-15 mph, with some gusts 
near 20 mph, kicking in by mid to late morning. Afternoon MinRHs 
will generally run in the 40 percent range, with some areas as 
low as the upper 30s. In areas, breeziness will persist past 
sundown.

A squall involving heavy rain and thunderstorms will sweep across
the state overnight Saturday. While the speed of the system will
leave the rest of Sunday in a drying and breezy/gusty post-frontal
flow, MinRHs will remain above critical thresholds.

Monday is forecast to trend drier, with MinRHs in the 20 percent
range and light winds. A dry front is forecast to move across the
region on Tuesday, which will set the stage for MinRHs to continue
bottoming out in the 20 percent range, but with the added risk of
low 20s in areas, for a couple days at least.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  85  61  72 /   0   0  90  60 
Anniston    62  84  62  73 /   0   0  90  60 
Birmingham  65  85  63  73 /   0   0  90  50 
Tuscaloosa  64  89  64  75 /   0   0  90  30 
Calera      63  88  63  76 /   0   0  90  50 
Auburn      61  84  62  77 /   0   0  60  90 
Montgomery  64  87  65  79 /   0   0  90  60 
Troy        60  85  63  80 /   0   0  60  90 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite