901 
FXUS61 KBUF 180012
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
812 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the Lower Lakes with a few showers tonight 
into early Saturday. Mainly Dry and warm Saturday ahead of a complex 
low pressure system and cold front that will bring a better chance 
of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Sunday into 
Monday. A brief period of dry weather expected Monday afternoon into 
Tuesday as high pressure noses in over the Lower Lakes. Active 
weather then returns Tuesday night through Thursday with the 
potential for lake enhanced rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc analysis places low pressure over eastern Manitoba with its warm 
frontal segment extending east-southeast towards the Lower lakes. As 
the warm front slowly traverses western and North Central NY 
tonight, a few light showers will work in from NW-SE into the 
region. That being said...a very dry layer from 900-850mb will keep 
or limit rainfall amounts until it can saturate. Even so...we are 
only looking at a few hundredths of an inch at best for those 
locales that do see precipitation tonight. 

Warm and mainly dry Saturday for much of the eastern Great Lakes 
behind the warm front. Infact...we should see some measure of 
sunshine break out and then winds kick up a bit with gusts up to 20 
mph in spots. We will 'likely' see highs in the 70s along the lake 
plains and Genesee Valley. Elsewhere...mercury readings will easily 
climb into the 60s, except across the Tug hill where it will be 
cooler with 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure along the east coast into Saturday 
will give way to the next weather system. As this system tracks 
northeast across the Upper Great Lakes, its warm front will push 
north across the central and lower Great Lakes, though remain north 
of the forecast area through Saturday morning. While the track 
remains north of the area, a few stray showers can't be ruled out 
across western New York Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low, will drag its potent cold 
front across the central United States Saturday and Saturday night. 
As the trough axis sweeps across the front, a secondary low will 
form along the front, near/over southern Lake Michigan Saturday 
night. As this secondary low strengthens, it will continue to 
progress northeastward into southern Ontario and Quebec. With the 
passage of the low to the northwest of the region, expect widespread 
rain showers/rain to expand eastward throughout the day on Sunday. 
Along with the rain, some rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out 
Sunday afternoon where there will be some, though limited amount of 
shear with the prefrontal trough. Rainfall may be heavy at times as 
a plume of moisture from the Gulf advects into the region. Expect 
rainfall amounts of up to an inch possible Sunday and Sunday night. 
Most recent guidance trends are slower with the approach of the 
system and its frontal boundaries, resulting in the bulk of the rain 
expected for the late afternoon/evening for WNY & the evening for 
the North Country. 

Aside from the rainfall, should note that this system will also 
bring some gusty winds to the region. The track of the low continues 
to track further northwest of the area, supporting lower winds, a 
slight shift eastward would bring brisker winds. How much the system 
weakens during the occlusion process, will also play a monumental 
role on how blustery of a day it will be Sunday.

As the low exits northeast, a tertiary surface low will develop 
either overhead of the region or over Pennsylvania Sunday night and 
into Monday. Overall, cool cyclonic flow will support lingering 
showers to persist for the start of the work week. Some of these 
showers, especially east of the lakes Monday will allow for a lake 
response.

Temperatures for Saturday, behind the passing warm front will warm 
to the low to mid 70s for WNY and to the mid 60s for the eastern 
half of the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday will remain warm 
for the entire forecast area in the upper 60s over the higher 
terrain to the mid 70s for the lower elevations. Temperatures for 
Sunday will be dependent on timing of FROPA, and if it ends up 
tracking across the region a bit earlier, then cooler temperatures 
can be expected for WNY. Monday, behind the passing cold front, 
temperatures will cool to back to near normal, in the mid 50s to 
near 60 for the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will spread across the region 
Monday night through Tuesday morning, supporting a very brief 
timeframe of dry weather. 

A few troughs tracking across the region later Tuesday through the 
rest of the period will bring a few additional rounds of showers 
through the rest of the period. With the cooler nature of the 
passing troughs, showers will also be lake enhanced downwind of both 
lakes at times.

Temperatures for the entire period will remain near to below normal 
for the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few light showers will be possible tonight as a warm front moves 
northeast through the region. Otherwise...VFR will continue across 
area terminals. 

Showers diminish early Saturday morning then dry weather resumes 
with VFR. 

Outlook... 

Saturday night...Mainly VFR with increasing cloud cover from west to 
east. 

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain. Isolated thunder and gusty winds possible 
across WNY.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers.

Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally remain light with minimal wave action tonight 
into Saturday morning on area lakes. 

Winds strengthen behind the warm front Saturday afternoon and 
especially Saturday night into Sunday. As the pressure gradient 
tightens in response to low pressure moving from the lower Ohio 
Valley northeast through the central Great Lakes it will produce 
fresh to strong southerly flow but will send the higher wave action 
into the open waters towards Canada. That said...Small Craft 
conditions are possible beginning as early as Saturday night and 
especially on Sunday. There is also the potential we could see low 
end gale force winds Sunday and Sunday night. Low pressure exits off 
to our east Monday but continue small craft conditions will remain 
on area lakes for much of the week as the next system impacts the 
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/EAJ
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/EAJ