245 
FXUS65 KFGZ 172238
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures continue 
today. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend, with near 
normal-temperatures into early next week. A passing low-pressure 
is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, breezier winds, and a 
10-30% chance of rain showers around of the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A dry trough is currently moving through 
northern AZ. We are seeing light winds and below normal temperatures 
today as the trough axis crosses our forecast area. Expect another 
round of chilly nighttime temperatures tonight with lingering low 
500-mb heights and continued conditions for efficient radiative 
cooling. 

Saturday through Monday...The trough propagates past our area and a 
ridge builds in its wake. This will lead to further dry conditions 
with light winds, but daytime temperatures recover to near or above 
normal. Overall a pleasant fall weekend can be expected.

Tuesday and onward...Clusters are in agreement that a low pressure 
system spinning off the coast Baja California will finally push 
northeastward across northern AZ. The only disagreement is in the 
strength and exact timing. This system is better positioned to pull 
up some moisture as it approaches, but precipitation chances are
currently not too high at any one location. There is generally a 
10-30% chance for precipitation across the region starting late 
Tuesday evening. As is typical with approaching troughs, elevated 
winds can also be expected. The upper percentiles of ensemble 
guidance have wind gusts peaking at 30-35 mph, which would remain 
below thresholds for a Wind Advisory. Some models keep showers in 
the forecast as late as Thursday morning, then there is good 
agreement in dry conditions with lighter winds returning 
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Mainly light and variable winds less the
10 kts through the period. 

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Mainly light and variable winds less than 10 kts
through Sunday, becoming west at 10-15 kts on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions with 
gradually warming temperatures. NW-NE winds 5-10 mph Saturday, S-SW 
winds 5-10 mph Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% both days.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions 
continue Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures decrease a few degrees on 
Wednesday with a slight chance of showers moving into the area. 
Winds W 10-15 mph on Monday, SE-S 10-15 mph on Tuesday, SW 10-20 mph 
Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% Monday and Tuesday, 20-35% 
Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff