353 
FXUS64 KMOB 172042 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 340 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Showers and storms return to the forecast Saturday night into
   Sunday morning. A few severe storms, capable of producing
   damaging winds or a tornado, is possible

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night
   through Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local 
   conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags.

 - Drier air next week and expanding drought may lead to fire
   weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Upper-level ridging will continue to move off to our east as a 
longwave trough digs into the central US and combines with a 
southern stream shortwave trough that is passing across Texas. The
axis of the longwave looks to pass overhead Sunday morning, with 
northwesterly flow becoming established in its wake. At the 
surface, an associated cold front is expected to move through the 
area on Sunday, with high pressure building in behind it. With 
sufficient moisture return expected, showers and storms will 
likely develop ahead of the cold front. Highest rain chances look 
to occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Model guidance over the past 24 hours have been trending to a more 
active period for the Saturday night through Sunday morning 
timeframe, bringing higher convective coverage to the local area, 
and also bringing an increasing threat for strong to severe storms 
to the area. Models continue to show a QLCS developing upstream over 
the lower Mississippi River Valley that will approach our local area 
by late Saturday night. However, unlike yesterday, where most models 
had the QLCS weakening prior to entering the local area, the low-end 
severe scenario has trended to the more likely scenario today. 
Looking at ensemble guidance, each consecutive run has come in with 
a more and more amplified longwave trough, which in turn has led to 
much better diffluence aloft/forcing across the local area. Hi-res 
CAMs that came in this morning also show a similar solution with 
regards to forcing, suggesting a deeper trough which leads to height 
falls of around 30-40 meters across the area. This better forcing
should help to maintain the QLCS longer as it enters and pushes 
through the area from the west. Looking at the dynamics at play, 
the deeper/stronger trough is helping to bring in some favorable 
shear values into the region (0-6km: 35-40kts and 0-1km:
25-30kts). Forecast hodographs are also improving in the low-
levels, resulting in nearly 150-200 m2/s2 of streamwise vorticity 
ingestion in the lowest kilometer. Pairing this with improved 
forecast instability values, which now suggest a narrow band of 
MLCAPE values potentially reaching 1000-1500 J/kg, the environment
may support supercellular organization especially if discrete 
storms are able to develop ahead of the main QLCS. Right now, the 
primary hazard appears to be damaging winds within the QLCS, but 
we cannot rule out a few tornadoes embedded within the QLCS or 
with a discrete supercell out ahead of the line. Instability does 
look to drop off the further east you go, so right now there 
appears to be a lessening threat for locations generally east of 
I-65. The western half of our CWA is currently outlooked with a D2
marginal, however, with how quickly things have been trending up,
would not be surprised to see parts of our area increased to a 
slight risk.

Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into Sunday 
afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind the cold 
front. We remain dry through the remainder of the period as a 
second, reinforcing cold front pushes through on Tuesday.

Temperatures remain well above normal for today and tomorrow, with 
highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s and lows ranging from the 
low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to low 70s closer to the 
coast. Temperatures will then trend downward through the remainder 
of the period, with highs typically ranging from the mid 70s to the 
low 80s and lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to the low 
to mid 50s closer to the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents 
continues through Saturday, becoming a High Risk Saturday night into 
Sunday. The rip current risk drops back to a Low Risk by Monday 
night and through the remainder of the period.

Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much 
of the local region. After the Sunday and Tuesday fronts pass 
through, guidance indicates that much drier air will push in, likely 
bringing afternoon humidity values down to below 30 percent for 
several days next week. Although winds appear to remain rather weak, 
the dry conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could 
lead to fire-related concerns next week. /96 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight.
Winds remain generally out of the southeast at around 5 to 10
knots today, relaxing to near 5 knots overnight tonight. Winds
increase during the day Saturday out of the southeast at 10 knots,
occasionally gusting upwards of 15 to 20 knots at times. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through 
Saturday, then a northwesterly flow develops on Sunday as a cold 
front moves through. Winds decrease on Monday, briefly becoming 
light and variable Monday night. A light to moderate northwesterly 
to northerly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  69  83 /   0  10  60  50 
Pensacola   72  83  72  84 /   0  10  50  70 
Destin      70  82  72  84 /   0  10  30  70 
Evergreen   62  89  67  84 /   0   0  60  60 
Waynesboro  64  87  65  79 /   0  10  80  30 
Camden      64  88  65  79 /   0   0  70  50 
Crestview   61  85  67  84 /   0  10  40  70 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday 
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday 
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$