987 
FXUS63 KJKL 172031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
431 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect one last very warm day on Saturday. A strong cold front 
  will then bring strong to potentially damaging wind gusts as it 
  crosses the area on Sunday morning.

- Following the front, expect blustery conditions with gusty 
  showers and falling temperatures on Sunday afternoon.

- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday 
  afternoon as a second cold front moves through.

- Much colder air will settle in for next week, creating the 
  potential for frost in sheltered valleys on Tuesday and 
  Wednesday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 431 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Another tranquil October afternoon is unfolding across eastern 
Kentucky, with temperatures mainly in the 70s and low dew points,
courtesy of an ~1018 mb surface high centered over Lake Ontario 
at 20Z. Aloft, a 500 hPa ridge axis extends from the Florida 
Panhandle northward across Kentucky and Michigan to James Bay. 
Upstream, a negatively-tilted trough extends from Manitoba to the
Lower Colorado River Basin. This is mirrored at the surface by an
~989 mb low near or over Lake Winnipeg, while an associated cold 
front arcs southeastward across Minnesota and then southwestward 
into New Mexico. A trailing northern stream upper-level trough 
extends from the Northwest Territories to the Northern U.S. 
Rockies.

The upper-level ridge and its associated surface high will 
gradually propagate eastward tonight and Saturday, moving off the 
Atlantic Seaboard during the second half of the weekend. 
Meanwhile, the aforementioned trailing trough will dig deeply as 
it dives southeast this weekend, effectively capturing the leading
upper-level trough and becoming a deep, negatively-tilting trough
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday. The aforementioned
cold front, preceding the trough axis, will become the focal 
point for rapid cyclogenesis, initially over the Osage Plains on 
Saturday evening before racing northeast and deepening to an ~985 
mb low north of the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Modest 
southerly return flow tonight and Saturday will give way to an 
intensifying warm conveyor belt jet pumping warmth and moisture 
into eastern Kentucky on Saturday night with some GEFS mean 850 mb
winds of 40 to 50 kts or 95th+ percentile relative to climatology.
In many cool season events, low-level stability with a warm 
frontal inversion, often enhanced by rainfall, would be sufficient
to preclude substantial momentum transfer from the warm conveyor 
belt jet to the surface. However, as this event approaches, the
low-levels are likely to be dry and more mixed as the surface 
pressure gradient will become sufficient (more than 4 mb across 
the area) for valleys that decouple early Saturday evening to 
recouple overnight. Additionally, virga falling into the dry sub-
cloud layer ahead of the front could lead to sufficient low-level
lapse rate steepening for at least moderate momentum transfer to 
the surface until the low-levels become saturated and prohibitive 
to substantial momentum transfer until the arrival of the front. 
The front appears to be sharply defined with this system, likely 
forcing a narrow line of convection (QLCS). While instability will
be minimal and model sounding equilibrium levels are low 
(generally warmer than -20C), strong forcing and rapidly 
steepening lapse rates up to 850 mb or deeper along the boundary 
could support strong momentum transfer right along the frontal 
boundary, especially so in any segments of the line that become 
more N-S to NW-SE oriented. This scenario could lead to instances 
of damaging winds (noted in the SPC Day 2 and 3 Marginal CWO), 
despite insufficient instability for thunder in most cases. 
Guidance generally favors stronger winds surfacing ahead of the 
front around 8Z Sunday, with the actual frontal passage occurring 
between 11Z and 17Z, west to east. While winds may slacken for a 
few hours immediately behind the front, the combination of diurnal
surface heating, strong CAA, and a still-robust 30 to 40 knot 
westerly 850 mb jet will set the stage for a blustery afternoon 
with falling temperatures. GFS/NAM mixed-layer momentum transfer 
guidance from BUFKIT continues to support widespread gusts of 30 
to 40 mph through much of the afternoon, with the strongest gusts 
near and north of I-64. Shallow convective showers in the post- 
frontal environment on Sunday afternoon could lead to locally 
stronger wind gusts. The tumble in 850 mb temperatures, from 
~12-15C at sunrise to ~2-5C by sunset, will lead to falling 
surface temperatures through Sunday afternoon.

In terms of sensible weather, fair conditions are expected for 
this evening and tonight. Temperatures will fall into the low to 
mid-50s for most, though some of the normally colder hollows could
dip into the 40s. On Saturday, mostly sunny skies will prevail, 
with temperatures warming well above normal into the low to mid-80s,
aided by a southerly breeze. After a lull Saturday evening, south
to southwest winds will become increasingly gusty overnight, likely
reaching a peak with a narrow line of showers and possibly a 
thunderstorm on Sunday morning. Overnight temperatures will hold 
nearly steady in the 60s or even rise slightly. Strong winds, 
gusting between 30 and 40 mph, and gusty showers are expected on 
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will start the day in the 60s to 
near 70, but will fall into the 50s by sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

The forecast period begins at the transition point between two 
synoptic features. First, the weekend’s strong cold front will 
depart, leaving lingering impacts over eastern Kentucky. To the 
west, surface high pressure will begin nudging into the region. 
Basically, the frontal boundary will slowly exit the area, and 
through Sunday night, upper-level height rises and ridging will 
usher surface high pressure into the region by Monday morning. 
Behind the departing front, persistent upper-level northwesterly 
flow will allow for CAA to establish itself overhead, resulting in 
chilly overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s from Sunday night 
into Monday.

Surface high pressure firmly entrenches itself on Monday. However, 
throughout the day the upper-level ridge axis will shift eastward as 
a new trough begins to approach the area from the west. This 
eastward shift introduces southwesterly flow, advecting warmer air 
into the region. High temperatures on Monday will climb into the mid 
to upper 60s. Overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday are forecast 
to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer as the WAA truly takes hold aloft. 
Concurrently on Monday, the next weather system is forecast to track 
off the lee of the Rockies into the Central Plains. A strong surface 
low is forecast to develop and as the associated upper-level trough 
continues to dig southeast, the surface feature is expected to lift 
northeast into the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes. By Tuesday 
morning, the vertically stacked upper-level feature is projected to 
be over the Great Lakes. At the surface, its accompanying cold front 
will be approaching the CWA. With an 80-to-90 knot jet core swinging 
overhead and the presence of a surface boundary, there is a strong 
potential for upper-level momentum to mix down to the surface. 
Forecast soundings, coupled with indications from momentum transfer, 
a strong Theta-E gradient, and high LREF probabilities (greater than 
90% for gusts over 25 mph) indicate that strong wind gusts of at 
least 25 mph are very likely with the frontal passage Tuesday 
afternoon. The front itself appears to be moisture starved and the 
locations most likely to see PoP are areas closer to the Ohio River 
and north; meaning the forecast area is expected to be dry but windy 
along the mostly dry cold front. As the area is forecast to remain 
mostly dry Tuesday night, post-frontal CAA and clear skies will 
allow for instances of frost development overnight Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build back into the region behind the 
exiting cold front on Wednesday. Upper-level flow will remain out of 
the northwest, maintaining CAA behind the front. This CAA is 
reflected in daytime highs for Wednesday, which are expected to 
struggle to climb much higher than the lower 60s. For Wednesday 
night, the combination of clear skies and continued CAA creates the 
potential for frost development across the sheltered valleys of 
eastern Kentucky. While overnight lows are generally forecast to be 
in the 30s to lower 40s, frost will be possible in favorable 
locations due to anticipated radiational cooling under clear skies.

Thursday is forecast to see a subtle warm-up as a surface warm front 
lifts northeast through the area early Thursday morning. Highs will 
climb into the mid to upper 60s. However, an upper-level 
perturbation is forecast to move through the mean flow, leading to 
increased chances of precipitation beginning Thursday afternoon and 
continuing through Friday afternoon. At this time, there is 
noticeable disagreement among long-term deterministic models 
regarding the precise timing and placement of the Thursday/Friday 
synoptic features. Nonetheless, the overall trend indicates a 
potential for scattered rain chances from Thursday through Friday.

Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by multiple passing 
disturbances bringing gusty to strong winds, some rain, and notable 
temperature fluctuations. Temperatures will begin to trend toward 
values expected for mid to late October, with the added potential 
for isolated frost on Tuesday night and again Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

High pressure will dominate through the period as it gradually
departs to the east. VFR conditions were prevailing at TAF 
issuance and will continue through the period, except in 
sheltered river valleys (e.g K1A6 and KBYL, and KI35) where MVFR 
or worse visibility reductions are possible in the typical fog 
late tonight. Light and variable winds will prevail through the 
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON