133 
FXUS65 KFGZ 171714
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1014 AM MST Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will continue 
today. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend, with near 
normal-temperatures into early next week. A passing low-pressure 
is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, breezier winds, and a 
10-30% chance of rain showers around of the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For today, northern Arizona remains under the
influence of a longwave trough, which will bring another round of
dry weather and below normal daytime temperatures. Otherwise, 
expect light winds and mostly sunny skies.

Beginning Saturday, there is good model agreement that high
pressure will build into the area from the southeast, leading to 
a warming trend and a continuation of light winds and dry weather 
into early next week.

Around Tuesday, virtually all model ensembles indicate that the 
upper-level ridge will break down as a Pacific low moves inland, 
likely sweeping across northern Arizona late Tuesday and 
Wednesday. This low-pressure system looks to be fairly low 
impact. There is high confidence northern Arizona will experience 
a period of cooler temperatures and more clouds. In addition, 
increased south to southwest wind speeds are forecast, but the 
windiest model solutions only show gusts in the 30-35 mph range 
over high terrain. At this point, chances of Advisory level wind 
speeds are very low. 

Forecast confidence in rainfall coverage and amounts remain low. 
The current forecast is calling for a 10-30% chance of rain 
showers. Drier models solutions show little to no measurable 
precipitation, while wetter model solutions show amounts in the 
0.25-0.35 inch range.

There is some uncertainty regarding how quickly this low will 
exit the area, but on average, models favor a return of dry and 
warmer weather on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 17/18Z through Saturday 18/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected. NW-NE winds 5-10 kts, 
locally gusty downwind of terrain during the overnight period. 

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/18Z through Monday 20/18Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. NW-NE winds 5-10 kts Saturday and 
Sunday, becoming W 10-15 kts on Monday. Locally gusty winds 
downwind of the terrain during the overnight period. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with gradually 
warming temperatures. NW-NE winds 5-10 mph each day. Minimum 
afternoon RH 20-35% today, decreasing to 15-25% on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions 
continue. South to southwest winds 5-10 mph on Sunday, then 
increasing to 10-20 mph out of the west on Monday, then south to 
southwest 10-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff