923 
FXUS63 KIND 171650
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Saturday morning

- Rain and thunderstorms expected late Saturday into Sunday along 
  with occasional wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

- Isolated strong to severe wind gusts possible Saturday PM

- Turning cooler following frontal passage Sunday and Monday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Forecast is in good shape this morning, with just some areas of high 
clouds moving across the area.

Quiet conditions will continue across central Indiana today with 
upper ridging still in control of the weather. High clouds will be 
increasing during the day, but even with these temperatures should 
still top out in the 70s. Depending on the thickness of these 
clouds, may have to tweak highs later, but for now no changes were 
made to high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Quiet early morning across central Indiana as the region remains 
under the influence of high pressure. Despite light E/SE winds... 
temperatures varied widely with ideal radiational cooling conditions 
ongoing. 06Z temperatures ranged from the lower and mid 40s in some 
of the typical cool spots across eastern portions of the forecast 
area to the mid 50s near Indy and across the lower Wabash Valley.

The persistent ridging at the surface and aloft will remain 
prevalent across the Ohio Valley through early Saturday. The 
amplification of a stronger upper trough across the Canadian 
prairies will serve to gradually flatten the ridge aloft as it 
shifts east of the region to begin the weekend. This will be the 
initial piece in the transition process to a strengthening surface 
wave and cold front that will bring storms and wind to the region 
late Saturday into Sunday.

Thin cirrus is already drifting into the forecast area early this 
morning and that should only expand and thicken throughout the day 
as progressively deeper moisture aloft advects into the Ohio Valley 
ahead of the cold front that will move from the central Plains this 
morning to the Missouri Valley by this evening. Winds will veer to a 
S/SE direction today as the surface ridge shifts further away to the 
east. With the approach of the aforementioned boundary...a 
tightening of the surface pressure gradient will produce an increase 
in winds up to 10 to 15mph for this afternoon before falling back 
tonight. Mid and high clouds will remain tonight in advance of the 
front as it moves closer to the forecast area by Saturday morning. 
Model soundings and RH progs show lingering dry air below 500mb 
tonight with most if not all of the rain holding off on reaching the 
Wabash Valley until Saturday afternoon.

Temps...warm advection today will be counteracted by the increase 
in high clouds which will likely produce highs similar to Thursday 
in the low and mid 70s. Lows tonight will remain in the mid and 
upper 50s over most of central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Saturday through Sunday night...

The primary concern in the extended will be early in the period with 
the potential for heavy rain across central Indiana and increasingly 
windy conditions over the weekend. Some uncertainties in exact 
details still exist, but guidance is becoming better aligned. 

Models depict upper level ridging continuing to shift out of the 
region early Saturday with a deep trough approaching from the west. 
A strong jet streak on the upstream side of the upper trough will 
allow for further amplification upon approach resulting in 
strengthening upper level divergence. Surface cyclogenesis within 
the Lake Michigan region is likely to occur with most guidance 
suggesting a low developing near Indiana or Michigan. At the same 
time, look for increasingly windy conditions due to a tightening 
MSLP gradient and strong low-level jet. Strengthening S/SW flow will 
also help to pull rich gulf moisture northward.

Strong dynamics and anomalous moisture streaming northward supports 
the potential for widespread heavy rain across central Indiana. Most 
ensemble guidance depicts 1-2 inches of rainfall which would be 
beneficial given ongoing drought conditions. There is a low threat 
for severe weather as low-level theta-e advection and cooling aloft 
leads to a modest increase in instability. Slight uncertainty still 
exists regarding storm mode depending on how the system evolves, but 
favorable dynamics/shear supports at least an isolated damaging wind 
gust threat. Forecast soundings do show some veering low-level 
hodographs Saturday PM suggesting there may be an isolated tornado 
threat. This will be monitored closely so check back for updates.

Precipitation chances begin to taper off Sunday into Sunday night
as drier air filters in behind the departing system. A tight MSLP
gradient along with shallow mixing into a strong LLJ will still 
promote windy conditions. Outside of convection, occasional gusts 
as high as 30-40 mph are possible.

Monday onward...

Quiet weather is expected to start the work week thanks to upper 
ridging and surface pressure over the region. Models suggest another 
system quickly moves in Monday night pulling another cold front 
through. Limited moisture return is the main caveat which should 
keep any rainfall amounts light. The front will provide another shot 
of cooler and drier air. Expect near or slightly below normal 
temperatures through midweek. Quiet weather continues through 
midweek before another upper level impulse approaches late Wednesday 
into Thursday. Rain chances are low once again with this feature due 
to limited moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Impacts: 

- Wind gusts 15-20kt this afternoon and early Saturday afternoon
- Wind gusts over 20kt for Saturday afternoon for KIND 30 hour TAF
- Chance for convection Saturday afternoon at KIND

Discussion:

Mixing will bring down some wind gusts in the 15 to 20kt range this 
afternoon and then again early Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, high 
clouds along with some mid clouds can be expected through 18Z 
Saturday.

For the KIND 30 hour TAF, wind gusts will increase to over 20kt 
Saturday afternoon in advance of the next system. Cannot rule out 
some convection mainly late in the 30 hour period, but odds are too 
low to put in the TAF at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50