268 
FXUS64 KBMX 170700
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
200 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025

 - There is a low (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms early
   Sunday morning for locations generally along and northwest of
   the I-20/59 corridor. A few storms will be capable of producing 
   isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

 
 - Medium to high (50-90%) chances of showers and storms this
   weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday
   night and 1 PM on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Today Through Sunday

The ridge axis will shift east across the area today which will 
cause low-level winds to shift to the south-southeast this 
afternoon. An upper-level shortwave will also graze the Tennessee 
Valley which will produce an increased covering of high-level clouds 
today, but no rain. Expect many locations to reach the upper 80s 
with some reaching 90 degrees this afternoon. The southerly flow 
will support a slight increase in moisture tonight, and overnight 
temperatures will be cool, but not as cool as they have been the 
past several nights. Conditions during the day on Saturday will be 
warm and mostly sunny, but rain chances will begin increasing 
Saturday night as the longwave trough axis moves towards the Great 
Lakes Region with a cold front extending south through the Lower MS 
River Valley region by midnight. Showers and storms should begin 
arriving to our western counties after midnight Saturday night 
then will quickly move through the area by early Sunday afternoon.
Model consensus has come in line with a more amplified trough 
axis which means better dynamics on the southern extent and across
our forecast area. As the mid-level jet noses into the area, 
~35-40 kt of eff. bulk shear will be present as a weakening QLCS 
moves into the area along the advancing cold front. The primary 
limiting factor continues to be limited instability due to the 
overnight time frame and weak lapse rates which will hinder 
updraft strength and limit the overall severe threat. A few 
isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across the 
northwestern half of the area, and perhaps a few weak rotating 
updrafts will be visible on radar, but the overall severe threat
is low, and the activity will weaken with eastward extent. QPF 
values remain in the one inch or less range with highest amounts 
expected across our northwest. The deeper system should push the 
front through with no problem, and expect the rain to exit the 
area during the early to mid afternoon. 


Monday Through Thursday

Fall temperatures will arrive on Monday behind the frontal passage 
as northwesterly flow develops. Lows in the 40s are expected Monday 
morning with daytime highs in the 70s. Another trough will dive 
southeast from Canada across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will 
push a reinforcing cold front through the forecast area which 
will encounter a dry airmass, so unfortunately it doesn't appear
that we will see much if any rain out of it. As such, the 
forecast remains rain-free through the middle of next week which 
will result in worsening drought conditions, but seasonal 
temperatures will continue behind the second frontal passage with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s 
each day through Thursday.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025

VFR TAFs are expected to continue through the next 24 hours as high 
pressure shifts east across the area. This will cause surface winds 
to shift to the south by mid-morning with speeds around 5 to 8 kts. 
A shortwave will cause an increase in high-level clouds, but no 
precip. Calm winds are expected after 00Z.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Saturday.
Minimum RH values of 35-40 percent are expected this afternoon,
but moisture will begin rising tonight as a front moves towards
the area. Showers and storms will move through the area Saturday
night and Sunday morning, but rain amounts will be generally one
inch or less, so little to no drought relief is expected. Expect
light south to southeasterly 20ft winds for the next couple of
days, but breezy conditions may develop on Sunday as the front 
moves through the area. Moisture decreases substantially by
Monday, and fire weather conditions will need to be closely
monitored with min RH ranging from 25-30%. Outdoor burning 
remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  60  85  63 /   0   0   0  70 
Anniston    83  61  84  64 /   0   0   0  60 
Birmingham  85  65  85  65 /   0   0   0  70 
Tuscaloosa  89  65  89  65 /   0   0   0  80 
Calera      87  63  88  64 /   0   0   0  70 
Auburn      82  60  83  63 /   0   0   0  30 
Montgomery  87  62  87  66 /   0   0   0  40 
Troy        84  60  84  63 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86/Martin
AVIATION...86/Martin