332 
AXNT20 KNHC 170900 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

Atlantic Large Swell Event: 
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters north of the discussion area will support
rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The
area of 12 ft and greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat,
covering the waters north of 27N between 50W and 69W by Sat night.
The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters 
allowing or seas to drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this 
swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters north of about 30N 
between 55W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Its position is
based on satellite imagery animation, further corroborated by a 
recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 
11N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Some gradual development 
of this system is possible over the next several days as it 
continues westward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward 
Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the 
early to middle part of next week.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 
04N to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the
wave from 08N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and 
extends southwestward to near 06N21W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 06N25W and northwestward to 08N35W. Aside from 
convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between
26W-31W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-26W and 
within 120 nm south of the trough between 17W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and just offshore the coast of 
Africa from 06N to 10N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 26N95W
southeastward to southeastward to the northeast part of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated
mostly weak showers are within 60 nm east of the trough from 23N 
to 26N and northwest of the trough from 26N to 29N between 93W and
96W. Otherwise, relatively weak high is present over the NE and 
north-central Gulf sections. The associated pressure gradient is 
generally supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds 
from 24N to 28N east of 94W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with seas of 2 to 3 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the west-central and 
SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate 
the Gulf region through early next week, resulting in gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
A cold front may reach the northern Gulf waters by Sun nigh and 
stall over the northern waters early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to just south of eastern
Cuba, and to just east of the northeast portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers
and thunderstorms along and near this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle
north to northeast winds north of the boundary, with the exception 
of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba to near
the coast of Cuba between 78W and 79W, and also between 80W and 
82W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the rest of the 
Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate south winds are noted over 
the far eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. 
Seas remain in the 2 to 4 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean, 
and 2 ft or less elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the 
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical 
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and 
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh 
winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details 
on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of
the north-central waters today.

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N52W
southwestward to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary 
front that continues southwestward to just inland northern
Hispaniola. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some 
heavy, are along both the cold and stationary the fronts as well 
as within about 240 nm east-southeast of the fronts. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are east and southeast of the fronts to 
near 45W and north of 19N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft, 
with the highest of the seas north of 27N between 48W and the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds and locally rough 
seas are west of the front. To the NW of the front, another cold 
front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N68W and to near 
the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are 
behind this front to 74W, and fresh north to northeast winds are 
west of 74W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in north to northeast swell behind 
the front north of 28N. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind 
the front from 26N to 28N along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in northeast 
swell.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from near 30.5N33W to 28N35W
and to 24N36W. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are 
within the surrounding environment of this trough, and seas of
8 to 12 ft are 24.5N38W, and fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are noted in the vicinity of this trough. A 1018 mb high is 
located near 24N30W. Its associated ridge extends west-
southwestward to just east of the Lesser Antilles. The related
gradient is producing gentle to moderate trade winds south of 
20N to near 17N between 26W and 48W, and mostly northeast to 
east winds from 10N to 20N between 26W and 48W. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft with these winds, except for 4 to 6 ft seas from 10N to 20N
between 26W and 48W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes 
indicate fresh to strong north winds between the coast of W Africa
and 20W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft within this area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere over the region.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move 
across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then 
build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected over the waters north of about 25N through Sat before 
winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across 
the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N 
through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover 
much of the waters east of 70W by early Sun. Seas will then 
subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend into early 
next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters north of 
27N and east of 70W from early on Fri through Sun morning. 

$$
Aguirre

482 
AXNT20 KNHC 170902 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

Atlantic Large Swell Event: 
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters north of the discussion area will support
rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The
area of 12 ft and greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat,
covering the waters north of 27N between 50W and 69W by Sat night.
The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters 
allowing or seas to drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this 
swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters north of about 30N 
between 55W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Its position is
based on satellite imagery animation, further corroborated by a 
recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 
11N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Some gradual development 
of this system is possible over the next several days as it 
continues westward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward 
Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the 
early to middle part of next week.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 
04N to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the
wave from 08N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and 
extends southwestward to near 06N21W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 06N25W and northwestward to 08N35W. Aside from 
convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between
26W-31W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-26W and 
within 120 nm south of the trough between 17W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and just offshore the coast of 
Africa from 06N to 10N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 26N95W
southeastward to southeastward to the northeast part of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated
mostly weak showers are within 60 nm east of the trough from 23N 
to 26N and northwest of the trough from 26N to 29N between 93W and
96W. Otherwise, relatively weak high is present over the NE and 
north-central Gulf sections. The associated pressure gradient is 
generally supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds 
from 24N to 28N east of 94W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with seas of 2 to 3 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the west-central and 
SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate 
the Gulf region through early next week, resulting in gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
A cold front may reach the northern Gulf waters by Sun nigh and 
stall over the northern waters early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to just south of eastern
Cuba, and to just east of the northeast portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers
and thunderstorms along and near this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle
north to northeast winds north of the boundary, with the exception 
of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba to near
the coast of Cuba between 78W and 79W, and also between 80W and 
82W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the rest of the 
Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate south winds are noted over 
the far eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. 
Seas remain in the 2 to 4 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean, 
and 2 ft or less elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate 
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the 
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical 
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and 
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh 
winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details 
on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of
the north-central TAFB waters today.

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N52W
southwestward to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary 
front that continues southwestward to just inland northern
Hispaniola. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some 
heavy, are along both the cold and stationary the fronts as well 
as within about 240 nm east-southeast of the fronts. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are east and southeast of the fronts to 
near 45W and north of 19N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft, 
with the highest of the seas north of 27N between 48W and the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds and locally rough 
seas are west of the front. To the NW of the front, another cold 
front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N68W and to near 
the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are 
behind this front to 74W, and fresh north to northeast winds are 
west of 74W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in north to northeast swell behind 
the front north of 28N. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind 
the front from 26N to 28N along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in northeast 
long-period swell.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from near 30.5N33W to 28N35W
and to 24N36W. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are 
within the surrounding environment of this trough, and seas of
8 to 12 ft are 24.5N38W, and fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are noted in the vicinity of this trough. A 1018 mb high is 
located near 24N30W. Its associated ridge extends west-
southwestward to just east of the Lesser Antilles. The related 
pressure gradient is producing gentle to moderate trade winds south 
of 20N to near 17N between 26W and 48W, and mostly northeast to east 
winds from 10N to 20N between 26W and 48W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with 
these winds, except for 4 to 6 ft seas from 10N to 20N between 26W 
and 48W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate fresh 
to strong north winds between the coast of W Africa and 20W. Seas 
are 7 to 8 ft within this area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere over 
the region.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move 
across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then 
build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected over the waters north of about 25N through Sat before 
winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across 
the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N 
through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover 
much of the waters east of 70W by early Sun. Seas will then 
subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend into early 
next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters north of 
27N and east of 70W from early on Fri through Sun morning. 

$$
Aguirre