733 
FXUS63 KLMK 170510
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
110 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected today and 
   Friday 

*  Warm and windy conditions are expected on Saturday. Wind gusts of 
   20 to 30 mph are likely, with high temperatures approaching daily 
   records Saturday afternoon.

*  A strong cold front will move across the area late Saturday into 
   Sunday morning. There is low confidence in a few strong or severe 
   storms with the front. Rainfall amounts should range from 0.75 
   to 1.75" in most areas, with isolated heavier totals possible.

*  More windy conditions are likely on Sunday, with 35 to 40 mph 
   wind gusts likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Earlier low clouds have continued to mix out, but remain over mainly 
southwest Indiana this afternoon.  These clouds were along the 
remnants of a backdoor cold front that has continued to drop 
southwestward across the region.  Across much of the region, mostly 
sunny skies were observed.  As expected, a gradient of temperature 
was noted across the region.  Afternoon temperatures ranged from the 
mid-upper 60s across the Bluegrass region to around 70 in the I-65 
corridor.  Mid-upper 70s were noted mainly along and west of the I-
165 corridor.  For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant 
weather is expected.  Low clouds across southwest Indiana will 
continue to mix out and skies are expected to become mostly clear by 
sunset.

Overnight, mostly clear skies are expected in the early part of the 
overnight period.  We may see some thin high clouds stream in from 
the southwest.  Surface winds will remain light out of the east and 
then should start to shift to the southeast toward morning.  Based 
on expected decoupling tonight, a ridge/valley split is expected. 
Rural and low-lying areas will likely drop into the upper 30s/lower 
40s with upper 40s to near 50 on the ridges and in the urban 
corridors.

Upper level ridging will build into the region during the day on 
Friday with winds shifting from the southeast early in the day to 
the south and eventually to the southwest by late afternoon.  Mostly 
sunny skies are expected with highs ranging from the lower 70s over 
the Bluegrass, to 73-76 in the I-65 corridor.  Upper 70s to the 
lower 80s are expected in the I-165 corridor and points west.  Quiet 
weather will continue into Friday night with warmer overnight 
minimums expected.  Lows will range from the lower 50s over the 
Bluegrass to the upper 50s in the I-65 corridor and points west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Moving into Saturday morning, the upper level pattern is forecast to 
have broad ridging over the western CONUS with a stout ridge over 
the eastern US coast.  Across the Plains, a broad mid-upper level 
trough axis will be in place.  This broad trough axis will shift 
eastward during the day on Saturday while strengthening 
significantly.

For the daytime hours on Saturday, strengthening pressure gradient 
will result in conditions becoming quite breezy/gusty during the 
afternoon.  Skies will start off mostly sunny during the morning 
hours, with an increase in mid-high level cloud cover coming by mid-
late afternoon.  Given anticipated strong southwest flow and 
sufficient insolation, afternoon highs will be well above normal 
across the warm sector with highs in the 83-88 degree range.  With 
these forecast highs, Bowling Green may be able to tie a high 
temperature record set back in 2016 and in other years.  For 
Lexington and Louisville, record highs are 87 for Saturday which for 
now look safe.

For Saturday night, as upper level trough axis amplifies, mid-upper 
level jets are expected to intensify ahead of the mid-level trough 
axis.  Surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur over central IN 
with the low moving and deepening as it heads into the southern 
Great Lakes.  Trailing cold frontal boundary will approach the 
region from the west/northwest.  Model plan sections continue to 
show a strong low-level jet response with winds of 50-55kts pushing 
through the Ohio Valley ahead of the front.  Moisture plume off the 
western Gulf will move into the region with PWATs rising to around 
1.7 inches just along the front.  Ongoing thunderstorms are expected 
to be in progress from IL back through western KY and SE MO.  These 
will push into our region during the overnight hours.

Looking through the various model soundings during this time period 
continues to show a rather limited instability profile.  Shear on 
the other hand, remains quite strong/impressive supportive of 
organized convection.   While lapse rates look marginal early in the 
night, the lapse rates really become quite poor as the night goes 
on, with surface instability becoming virtually non-existant.  On 
the other hand, some marginal elevated instability may hold on 
across the region.  Overall, it appears that a line of convection 
will move through the region and weaken as it encounters the less 
stable environment.  Despite the limited instability, the decent 
shear profile may result in a limited severe threat.  The highest 
threat would generally be along and west of I-65.  Damaging wind 
gusts would be the main hazard, though low-level curvature of the 
hodographs suggests that a few storms could exhibit rotation across 
mainly far western KY.  The overall wind threat here could be muted 
if the model soundings showing a near surface temperature inversion 
hold up.  Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with these 
storms, but the progressive nature of the system should limit 
residence time in any one area.  Therefore, a very low risk of flash 
flooding remains possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be 
possible across the region, though a few isolated amounts over 2 
inches will be possible.  Lows Saturday night will fall into the 50s.

For Sunday, surface cold front is likely to cross the I-65 corridor 
around sunrise and then plow through the remainder of Kentucky 
during the daytime hours.  Showers will likely be ongoing at the 
start of the day on Sunday and should continue to press eastward 
during the day.  In the post frontal airmass, lapse rates are 
forecast to steepen through the day and very gusty winds are 
expected across the region.  Widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph will 
be be possible, with the highest wind gusts likely across the 
Bluegrass region into northern and northeastern KY and southern 
Ohio.  Should the forecast trends continue, a wind advisory may be 
needed for Sunday in subsequent forecasts.  Cold advection will keep 
temperatures in check with highs remaining in the low-mid 60s during 
the day.

The upper trough axis will quickly move to the east Sunday evening 
and winds will rapidly diminish from west to east by early evening. 
Ridging will start to build in from the west with skies clearing 
late.  Lows will likely drop into the upper 30s in most locations.

Monday through Thursday...

A progressive upper level pattern will remain in place across the 
CONUS with a series of upper level troughs and surface fronts moving 
through the US.  Monday looks to be a dry day across the region with 
highs in the upper 60s across southern IN and into portions of 
northern Kentucky.  Southern KY may see highs in the upper 60s to 
around 70.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to around 50.

The next weather system will move toward the region on Tuesday.  The 
overall trend in today's guidance has been a bit less amplified with 
this trough axis. However, plume of moisture ahead of should be 
enough to generate showers and perhaps a few storms.  Highs Tuesday 
will be in the upper 60s with lows dropping back into the upper 30s 
to around 40.  Below normal temps are expected for Wednesday and 
Thursday with highs in the lower-middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period. 
High clouds will move across the region through the day today, 
gradually increasing in coverage through late this evening. Winds 
should veer from easterly to southeasterly today, with speeds 
remaining less than 10 kt in general. Winds will continue to veer 
toward the south by the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG