737 
FXUS61 KCLE 160740
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist into Friday. A warm front will lift 
north across the area Friday night into Saturday ahead of a strong low
pressure system. This system will extend a cold front east through
the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure building from the 
south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside of the potential for frost late tonight into Friday
morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term 
period as high pressure persists across the region into Friday,
followed by a warm front lifting northeast through the area late
Friday.

The frost/freeze potential should be a bit more widespread
tonight into Friday morning as 925 mb winds diminish, leading to
nearly calm surface winds across the eastern half of the area.
Will let the current Frost Advisory run through this morning 
before issuing the next set of headlines for tonight. The
highest confidence for frost/freeze conditions is generally
along and east of the I-71 corridor. 

Otherwise, a warm front will lift northeast through the region late
Friday which could result in scattered rain showers, particularly
across the far north and northeast portion of the area. Mainly 
seasonable temperatures are expected for the near term period in
the low to mid-60s. Some upper 60s to lower 70s are possible 
across Northwest Ohio behind the warm front Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather is likely for the short term period, particularly Saturday
night into Sunday as a potentially significant system develops 
and moves northeast through the Lower Great Lakes region. Some
notable updates with this forecast package include the addition
of an SPC marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Saturday 
evening and overnight (day 3) as well as confidence increasing 
for strong wind gusts on Sunday behind the cold front. 

Much of Saturday should stay dry ahead of the approaching system
as increasing warm air advection results in well-above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. By late Saturday 
evening and overnight, widespread rain and perhaps a few 
thunderstorms will begin to arrive from the west, aided by a 
strong south to southwest LLJ of 45 to 50 knots as a large 
upper- level trough moves east through the Great Lakes. At this
point, the main concern with any thunderstorms that could become
strong to severe is a damaging wind gust threat given the 
robust low- level wind field.

By Sunday morning, a cold front will be moving east through the
area, with re-development of showers and storms found along 
and east of the I-77 corridor. The low- level wind field will 
continue to strengthen in response to a likely deepening low 
pressure to the northwest across the Central Great Lakes. Area 
soundings do indicate the potential for a few stronger storms 
given the favorable high shear environment, though uncertainty 
remains on the available instability. If any stronger storms do 
form, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat, followed 
by a low-end "spin- up" tornado threat, given modest low-level 
wind profiles yielding 150 to 200 m2/s2 of SRH. Will also need 
to monitor the potential for strong wind gusts behind the cold 
front with mixing heights forecast to reach near 850 mb Sunday 
afternoon.

It's worth noting that the development of this upper-level 
trough is resulting from the phasing of the significant system 
that recently impacted western Alaska. There has been remarkable
upper-level consensus amongst model guidance thus far, though 
the specific surface features (i.e. cyclogenesis location and 
strength), still remain uncertain and will continue to be 
monitored. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure is favored to build across the region from the
south on Monday as a brief upper-level ridge slides east through
the Great Lakes ahead of the next system. Active weather will
return by Tuesday into Wednesday as another potent upper-level
trough and cold front sweep east through the Great Lakes, 
ushering in another round of widespread precipitation and 
strong wind gusts on Tuesday. Some wrap-around showers 
associated with the TROWAL and/or lake enhanced rain will likely
persist across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on 
Wednesday as 850 mb temperatures fall to near 1 degrees C.

It appears mainly seasonable temperatures in the low to mid-60s
are expected for much of the long term period. Some upper 50s 
may begin to arrive by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast
into the region today. Skies are clear at the start of the 
period except a small patch of clouds near 3500 feet that will 
be in the vicinity of FDY through about 08Z. Otherwise 
conditions are expected to be generally VFR through the TAF 
cycle. Some mixing is expected to continue overnight, but if 
winds go calm at TOL or FDY towards sunrise, can not entirely 
rule out a short window of MVFR visibilities with BR. Otherwise,
light north to northeast winds are expected to continue until 
tonight when they go light and variable or shift around to the 
southeast. 

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Scattered 
showers with a warm front may bring limited non-VFR Friday 
night. Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes on 
Sunday, pushing a cold front across the local area. Non-VFR due 
to showers/possible thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible 
with this system, especially Sunday and Sunday night. Non VFR
possible downwind of Lake Erie into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast over 
Lake Erie today. North to northeast winds early this morning will 
decrease into the 10-15 knot range towards sunrise which will allow 
wave heights to drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The 
Advisory is scheduled to expire at 8 AM and that looks on track. 

Good marine conditions are expected on Friday with southerly winds 
increasing through the day on Saturday. A strengthening low pressure 
system is forecast to impact the area over the weekend. Low pressure 
is expected to track out of the Plains, and the best model consensus 
shows a strengthening low passing near or just north of Lake Erie. 
While some uncertainty does remain in the track and strength of this 
system, this solution would pull a strong cold front east across 
Lake Erie on Sunday with the potential for gale force winds. The 
wind and wave forecast with this system has trended considerably 
upward on this cycle and will continue to watch the storm track and 
over the next couple days. Adjustments to timing and track remain 
possible so stay tuned to updated forecasts. If the strong southwest 
to west wind occurs, we will also need to monitor for low water 
conditions on the western basin of Lake Erie. Models do indicate 
this strong system will quickly depart to the northeast with winds 
backing around to the southwest by either Monday or Monday evening. 
This looks to be the beginning of a more active pattern as the next 
system could cross Lake Erie as early as Tuesday. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-022-023-
     032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for 
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10