953 
FXUS64 KLIX 152315
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
615 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Best chance of showers and storms will be this Saturday and
   Sunday as a cold front enters the area late Saturday or Sunday.

 - Outside of Saturday and Sunday, the forecast is generally dry 
   and warm for the area

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Closed high is centered over eastern Texas currently. This is 
helping keep the area relatively dry, rain-free and warm during 
the afternoon. With the lower humidity in place, low temperatures 
will reach the upper 50s to 60s. This will hang out for the next 
day or so before migrating eastward. Once this starts moving the 
winds will turn and onshore flow will begin to return moisture to 
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday will be more of the same as today and Thursday, but we'll 
have a bit of a pattern change as the upper level high moves 
eastward and moisture is pumped back into the area. A shortwave
passes through the area and looks to clip at least along/north of
the I-10/I-12 corridor. While there is definitely potential for
convection Saturday night into Sunday, based on the current model
trends, thinking the best environment, particularly shear, will 
be to our northwest in the ArkLaTex region. However, there is some
close to marginal environmental support with a little bit of 
CAPE, so trends will have to be continue to be monitored. 
Once we are into the new work week, we go back to being dry for
the foreseeable future. Temperatures and dew points will be a bit
higher than this week too since southeasterly flow continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR this evening, and for the most part, should remain that way.
Can't rule out a brief period of light fog around sunrise.
However, quite a bit of difference in solutions, and with mainly
dry conditions the last few weeks, confidence isn't particularly
high. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the
east and southeast by Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more
variable and near or below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet
today. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to
15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high.
Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger
winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over
the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to
20 knots Friday night. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet
in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday,
winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will
persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  61  89  63  88 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  67  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  63  85  65  84 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  59  87  61  85 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...BL