366 
FXUS63 KLMK 152025
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
425 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the workweek with 
   highs mostly in the 70s. 

*  Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph and highs into the 80s on 
   Saturday ahead of the approaching cold front. 

*  Strong frontal boundary to move through the region late Saturday 
   and into Sunday. Strong thunderstorms, with gusty winds will be 
   possible during this time along with 1-2 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Tonight, as the axis of an upper ridge slides east from the Ozarks 
towards the Mississippi Valley, the front of the ridge will push the 
center of a surface low east over the Great Lakes. As the high 
begins to pass the Lower Ohio Valley, surface winds will continue 
veering from the northeast towards the east-northeast. Mid-level 
winds will remain northerly, pushing scattered to broken stratus 
south across Indiana into central Kentucky. As the CWA remains mixed 
tonight under some cloud cover, lowers are expected to drop into the 
low to mid 50s in most places, but along the eastern edge (eastern 
Bluegrass region) temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to 
upper 40s. 

Tomorrow, the upper ridge reaches the Mississippi Valley as the 
surface high reaches the middle of the Great Lakes. Winds remain 
from the northeast as skies clear throughout the day. CAA will limit 
highs in parts of the Bluegrass to the upper 60s while temperatures 
increase to the southwest. Areas near Bowling Green are expected to 
climb into the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday, as the axis of the upper ridge moves east of the CWA, a 
shortwave will approach the CWA from the southwest. This is expected 
to bring passing cloud cover to the region, but we are expected to 
remain dry. Highs on Friday range from the low 70s across the 
northeastern parts of the CWA to near 80 in the southwest.  

Saturday evening, an upper trough, centered over the Plains, will 
quickly slide to Illinois by Sunday morning. This will quickly 
strengthen a surface low just ahead of the trough. The developed 
trailing cold front is expected to move east over central Illinois 
and the Missouri Ozarks as is moves east towards the Lower Ohio 
Valley. Southern surface flow ahead of the front will lift 
precipitable water values to 1.6-1.7" with dew points climbing into 
the mid to upper 60s along the area of heaviest precipitation that 
is expected to move across the CWA. 

The global models remain slightly slower than the current forecast 
that has rain chances entering the western side of the CWA Saturday 
afternoon/evening, but the NAM and some of the other regional models 
have the Saturday evening arrival. 

Severe weather potential currently appears fairly low, the NAM which 
is usually overall aggressive is showing a few areas with MLCAPE 
values with over 1,000 J/kg with plenty of deep layer and near 
surface shear to get some attention, but near surface lapse rates 
and surface wind direction appear to be limiting factors. Believe 
it's worth keeping an eye on, but currently not too concerned. The 
time of day will also likely place a row with later in the evening 
or overnight reducing severe chances. 

The front will have an affect on temperatures with highs on Saturday 
in the low to mid 80s falling into the 60s on Sunday.   

By early Sunday night, with the front east of southern Indiana and 
central Kentucky, high pressure will fill the void. Skies clear as 
high temperatures reach into the mid 60s to low 70s Monday and 
Tuesday. This is near normal for this time of year. 

Tuesday night, another stacked low embedded in an upper trough will 
bring another cold front to the Ohio Valley. The details will become 
better focused with time, but currently, the GFS has some impressive 
wind energy with this front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at all the 
TAF sites. Upper ridging and high pressure continue to keep the 
region dry, but an area of scattered to broken stratus is expected 
to push south over southern Indiana and central Kentucky for most of 
the night. Winds begin out of the north but will veer towards the 
east-southeast into tonight where they will stay through the day 
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW