537 
FXUS63 KIND 151746
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of sprinkles with mostly cloudy skies today

- Warmer, with rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday 
morning. A few thunderstorms possible.

- Turning cooler following frontal passage Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Broad ridging over the upper Mississippi Valley will still 
promote surface pressure increases over the Ohio Valley through the 
end of the work week; however, an amplifying subgeostrophic jet 
streak beneath a modest shortwave upstream of the ridge will keep 
conditions mostly cloudy through today, including intermittent 
pockets of light showers and sprinkles. Day time sensible heat 
fluxes have led to some mixing out of the low level cloud layer 
within central Indiana. This should lead to some fluctuation between 
scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. The diurnal curve 
will dampen a little beneath this cloud cover with highs this 
afternoon in the low 70s.

As mentioned, there is a chance for sprinkles and light rain showers 
today within the passing upper wave. Dew point depressions, have 
increased to between 15-20F this afternoon, limiting overall 
coverage, but a few concentrated pockets of lift approaching from 
the west may allow for some precipitation to occur. If any does 
occur, total QPF will likely remain at 0.01 or less in any given 
area.  

Low to mid level clouds are expected to linger over western and 
northern portions of central Indiana tonight. This should limit 
diurnal cooling and keep temperatures warmer compared to areas 
further east. There are some hints at a boundary developing south of 
the cloud cover tonight, of which could lead to a narrow corridor of 
fog development, but confidence in occurrence is low at this point. 

For tomorrow, the surface high should become more established over 
the general region eventually leading to mostly clear skies by the 
late morning. Some patchy diurnal cumulus is likely to develop on 
the eastern periphery of the surface high, currently expected over 
eastern Indiana, but there is still some variability in surface high 
positioning for tomorrow. Highs should remain fairly stagnant 
despite less cloud cover due to weak CAA on the backside of today's 
shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday Night through Friday Night...

Dry and warm weather is expected during this period. Models suggest 
strong ridging in place aloft with strong surface high pressure in 
place over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday Night. These features 
will push east through Friday Night, but continue to control the 
weather across Central Indiana through Friday Night. Forecast 
soundings show a dry column across through this time. No forcing 
appears available within the southwest flow aloft, thus partly 
cloudy and warm weather will be expected as backside southerly winds 
should be in place.

Saturday and Sunday...

Forecast remains on track to have the best chances for rain during 
this period. Models suggests a strong trough axis over the plains to 
deepen and push into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday and cross 
Indiana on Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of the trough axis along 
with an associated approaching cold front will be favorable for 
temperature and moisture advection as well as broad lift. At this 
time it appears that several dry hours will be in place on Saturday 
until the best moisture arrives which looks to occur on Saturday 
Night and into Sunday. Thus will focus best pops at that time. A few 
thunderstorms may be possible along the front, but confidence is 
low. Furthermore, progressive flow should allow for quick moving 
storms, limiting flooding potential. Models suggest the upper trough 
axis will still be over Indiana on Sunday as it appears to become 
somewhat negatively tilted. Models here still keep abundant moisture 
available. Thus continued pops for mainly lighter precipitation will 
be needed. Given the clouds and rain, expect a cool down in high 
temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday...

Dry but seasonable weather is expected to return early next week as 
a quick moving ridge aloft is suggested to pass across Indiana 
during this time. A strong surface high pressure system is shown to 
be present beneath this ridge, centered over the deep south and 
stretching to the Great Lakes. Thus partly cloudy skies will be 
expected with highs in the 60s.

Wednesday...

Rain chances will once again be needed here as another quick moving 
short wave is suggested to pass. Models suggest the arrival of a 
strong warm front ahead of an associated, deep low over the central 
plains. Thus again, pops will be needed perhaps starting as early as 
Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Clouds are 
moving through central Indiana with ceilings between 4000-8000ft. 
MVFR ceilings are unlikely today, but brief dips below 3000 
along with sprinkles cannot be ruled out at any site.

Winds have become steady around 5-7kt out of the east. These should 
turn more to the NE overnight before returning to easterly tomorrow. 
Occasional gusts are possible tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in 
occurrence is too low to include at this time. 

Depending on clearing tonight, there is a potential scenario where 
fog may develop at KBMG tomorrow morning. Trends will be closely 
monitored in upcoming issuances for this potential.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Updike