001 
FXUS65 KFGZ 151035
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
335 AM MST Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers across northwestern Arizona through 
this morning, then dry conditions prevail through the rest of the 
week. Cooler temperatures are expected through Friday, with a 
slight warmup over the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...The closed low is located over the Great Basin 
early this morning, and will continue to move to the east through 
the day today. The gradient has relaxed enough that we shouldn't see 
winds quite as strong as we did on Tuesday but expect it to still be 
a little breezy through this afternoon. There is still a little bit 
of moisture remaining across northwestern Arizona and the forcing 
from the approaching low continues to keep some showers going, 
mainly across far western Coconino county. With much cooler air 
filtering into the region, we can't rule out a few snowflakes 
falling over the Kaibab Plateau through this morning but no 
accumulations are expected. Showers should finally come to an end 
by midday. 

By late tonight, the low should be over Utah and the trough will be 
making its way through the region. By early Thursday morning, the 
low will be well off to our north but the trough may slow a bit as 
it moves through and doesn't exit the area until Thursday afternoon. 
The flow turns more to the west-northwest for Thursday and will keep 
us nice and dry. A secondary trough pushes down late on Thursday and 
this trough will usher in and reinforce the colder air and this will 
be the start of our cold nights, especially across the higher 
terrain. The second trough should move through the region pretty 
quickly on Friday but that northwesterly flow will linger into early 
Saturday. Daytime highs will be 5-15 degrees below average through 
Friday but as we start to see a little ridging occur over the 
weekend, we should be able to bounce back and have temperatures 
closer to average. 

The start of next week could be interesting as some long term models 
are hinting at another trough interacting with a Pacific low. Still 
too far out to have much confidence on the outcome but it is 
something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/12Z through Thursday 16/12Z...MVFR CIGS 
possible around the higher terrain through 15Z, otherwise VFR. ISO 
-SHRA possible N/W of a KIGM-KGCN-KPGA line before 20Z. Winds S/SW 
10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, becoming VRB 5-10 kts after 02Z. 
Locally gusty winds remaining downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/12Z through Saturday 18/12Z...VFR conditions. 
Winds generally NW-NE 5-10 kts, locally gusty NE winds downwind of 
the terrain overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Mainly dry and seasonably cool 
temperatures, outside of a slight chance for showers near the Kaibab 
Plateau through this afternoon. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph 
today, becoming northwest through northeast 5-10 mph on Thursday. 
Minimum afternoon RH around 30-50%, falling to 20-30% on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradual warming. Winds
north/northeast 5-10 mph Friday and Saturday, becoming south/southwest
on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff