109 
FXUS61 KPBZ 150027
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
827 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and normal to slightly below normal temperatures
can be expected the remainder of the week. Frost and localized 
freeze conditions are possible both Thursday and Friday 
mornings. Rain may return for portions of the region Saturday 
before more widespread rain develops with a cold front Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A dry cold front will cross overnight and increase cloud 
  cover.
---------------------------------------------------------------

A cold front will drop SSE across the region overnight. Dry 
conditions are expected to remain with very limited moisture 
associated with the approaching air mass. However, cold 
advection should allow the increase in stratocumulus development
in the post- frontal environment. This cloud cover and later 
arrival of cooler air means overnight low temperature remains 
near to slightly above the daily average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry conditions
- Frost/freeze conditions appear increasingly likely Wednesday night 
and Thursday night
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There is high confidence in dry conditions persisting Wednesday and 
Thursday as the local area remains under an area of northwest flow, 
sandwiched between a broad upper ridge over the central CONUS and a 
deepening longwave trough over the western Atlantic. Cooler air will 
filter into the area in response to the amplifying pattern, with 
high temperatures each afternoon returning to near seasonal levels 
(low 60s for the Pittsburgh area). As the surface high shifts 
eastward and centers more over the lower Great Lakes, we will see 
drier air and calming winds which should result in very efficient 
nighttime radiational cooling. 

A frost/freeze remains possible both Wednesday and Thursday nights. 
The most likely areas to experience frost will be north and east of 
Pittsburgh, where NBM probabilities are near 100 percent for low 
temperatures dropping to 36F or lower (a decent proxy for frost 
formation in situations like this). Elsewhere across eastern OH, 
northern WV, and southwestern PA, locations outside of the immediate 
Ohio River valley generally see frost probabilities ranging from 40 
to 60 percent. With respect to freeze conditions, NBM probabilities 
for low temperatures at or below 32F are as much as 60-90% for areas 
north and east of Pittsburgh and the Laurel Highlands. Therefore, 
expect some combination of frost/freeze headlines Wednesday night.

There are higher probabilities for frost/freeze conditions across a 
larger portion of the area Thursday night, but any headlines for 
that period will be dictated by the expanse and magnitude of 
frost/freeze conditions Wednesday night, as the growing season may 
end for many locations on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures return Friday into the weekend
- Rain chances increasing late this weekend

------------------------------------------------------------------- 

The central CONUS ridge shifts eastward Friday through the weekend, 
centering over the local area early Saturday and over the eastern 
seaboard on Sunday as an upstream trough deepens over the upper 
Midwest and Great Lakes. Mostly dry conditions can be expected to 
start the period, though guidance does suggest a low chance for 
decaying rain showers to make their way across mainly the northern 
half of the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. However, 
confidence in this occuring remains low as ensembles are currently 
in a rather significant disagreement regarding the magnitude of dry 
air below 700mb and thus the amount of sub-cloud evaporation. The 
current NBM mean maintains low (20-30%) PoPs north of I-70 which 
seems reasonable at this time given the uncertainty. Regardless, if 
precipitation occurs it would be very light, with even the LREF 90th 
percentile topping out at only a tenth of an inch of total rainfall 
during that period (and primarily focused north of Pittsburgh).

As the central CONUS trough continues to advance eastward, it pushes 
the upper ridge out over the western Atlantic, returning the local 
area to unsettled weather and increasing chances for showers and 
thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday night. Current ensemble 
guidance indicates 24-hour totals generally ranging from 0.25" to 
0.75" across the region within the 25th to 75th percentile range. 
However, there continues to be some outlying members that indicate a 
non-zero chance for higher amounts approaching 1.0 to 1.25 inches in 
some locations.

Temperatures trend warmer Friday through Sunday, climbing back above 
seasonal normals with the warmest day looking to be Saturday as 
highs climb into the low to mid 70s. A cold front on Sunday brings 
temperatures back down to near seasonal levels to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions to start the night. A dry cold front will move 
through the region starting around 05z, with impacts mainly tied to 
the spread of cig restrictions. Model guidance remains varied on the 
coverage of any post-frontal cloud deck (formed via cold advection 
and weak moisture influx from Lake Erie) as well as exact heights. 
Given prior stratus struggles of broader model consensus, TAFs are 
trended towards HREF probabilities that suggest 50-90% of at least 
MVFR cigs. The highest confidence for both MVFR/IFR is at KMGW due 
to moisture convergence/upslope flow with higher terrain.

Dry advection and subsidence will erode any MVFR stratus by 
Wednesday afternoon (80-90% confidence of VFR by 18z). There is 
potential for a stray sprinkle/drizzle due to warm advection aloft 
but a dry mid-level layer creates a too low probability of it 
reaching the ground.

.OUTLOOK...
Surface high pressure with height rises aloft favor VFR into 
Saturday morning before a series of shortwaves ahead of the next 
cold front bring increased rain and restriction chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier/88
NEAR TERM...Frazier/88
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...Frazier/Lupo