527 
FXUS64 KLIX 142243
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
543 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Enjoy the last day or so of dry air as moisture slowly returns 
   late week.
 - Early indications of another cold front arriving this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Upper level high pressure becomes pretty much centered right over 
our area today, which will dominate our weather pattern through the 
short term. With a northerly flow still in place, we will continue 
to see lower humidity through Tuesday and Wednesday. With many areas 
seeing RH values into the low 30s Tuesday, some potentially touch 
the upper 20s, and rising up some into the upper 30s to mid 40s. 
Into Thursday, we will see a little bit of a pattern shift as winds 
turn more E/ESE which starts to bring a little moisture back into 
the region. Though we see a little moisture creep back in, it will 
not be very much so no rain chances to be seen for the short term 
forecast period.

In terms of temperatures, Tuesday will be fairly similar to Monday 
with afternoon highs in the mid 80s for most of the area. Wednesday 
and Thursday we will be a touch warmer, into the upper 80s for some, 
which will be back to around 5-7 degrees above climate normals for 
this time of year. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Into the long term period we see a deepening trough in the desert SW 
gradually sliding eastward towards our region. This looks likely to 
bring a cold front through the area sometime over the weekend. While 
the GFS has the trough on the deeper side compared to the Euro, both 
do have the cold front as a feature which helps bring confidence 
that it will come through here. Out ahead of the front we will see 
increased southeasterly winds off the Gulf which will help advect 
plenty of moisture back into our area. With this, we see PoPs rise 
throughout the weekend, with Saturday seeing 35-45% for western 
areas and Sunday bringing 50% for the entire area. While the 
features seem to be in agreement there is still some slight 
differences in timing of rain and storms between the globals. The 
new run of the GFS has the bulk of the event through our area by 
late Saturday into the very early Sunday hours. Meanwhile the Euro 
does not really start much until that time. We will need to continue 
to monitor how the timing trends as that could cause a difference in 
the ability to see some stronger storms develop. SPC does highlight 
parts of northern Louisiana under a risk of severe weather, but 
mentions a decent amount of uncertainty about the threat more 
downstream. 

In advance of the front Beyond the rain and storms, this cold 
front will bring us back to average high temperatures again, into 
the mid 80s late in the weekend and early next week. Let's hope 
one of these times the normal temperatures can stick around for 
longer than a day or two!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the 
east and southeast on Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more 
variable and below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet through 
Wednesday. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 
10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing 
high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these 
stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the 
waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore 
winds to 15 to 20 knots on Saturday.  Seas will respond and increase 
to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters.  After the front moves 
through on Sunday, these higher winds will shift to the northwest, 
but choppy conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  60  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  67  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  62  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  56  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL