919 
FXUS01 KWBC 142013
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 15 2025 - 00Z Fri Oct 17 2025

...A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains for New Mexico
for Wednesday ...

...Winter weather and mountain snowfall are likely in the northern
Rockies...

... Isolated severe weather across the Southern Rockies and
Central High Plains for Wednesday and Thursday...

An impressive closed upper-level low has moved into Southern
California today and has prompted several flash flooding and
severe weather local storm reports. Additionally, the Sierra
Nevada has begun to see snowfall accumulations and will continue
to see Winter Storm impacts into tomorrow morning as snowfall
amounts are forecast to reach around a foot with locally higher
amounts possible. This "bowling ball of energy" will continue to
traverse the Mountain West on Wednesday and then start to enter
the Plains by late week. Meanwhile, the central part of the
country will be segmented by a stationary front across the Plains
and Midwest that will lift as a warm front in the middle of the
week and bring milder conditions across the area.  The Northeast
should see weather improve starting today and especially by
tomorrow as a "backdoor" cold front pushes through the area and
cool high pressure settles into the region.

The active Southwest will continue into tomorrow as a surface low
pressure and trailing cold front traverse Arizona and New Mexico.
Combinations of large scale ascent ahead of the trough, sufficient
surface instability, and saturated soils (low flash flood
guidance) will support a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across the San Juan and Santo de Cristo
Mountains. For Thursday, there has been another Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall added to eastern Montana and western North
Dakota as moisture and instability creep northwards in association
with the western trough and a developing surface low in the
northern Plains.

There will be enough instability and shear for organized
thunderstorms across New Mexico for Wednesday and across the
Central/High Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The Storm Prediction
Center has central New Mexico to southern Colorado in a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5). Hail will be the biggest threat in thunderstorms
that do develop as bulk shear will be fairly high, but an isolated
strong wind gust or two will also be possible. Eastern Wyoming
into western Kansas and South Dakota will also see isolated
thunderstorms capable of producing hail. A similar weather pattern
will be in place on Thursday across the Central Plains with the
possibility of isolated supercells containing hail.

Back to the start of the cool season, the Mountain West will see
snow in the higher elevations for Wednesday and Thursday in the
higher elevations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the
Teton and Gros Ventre mountain ranges beginning Wednesday night
into Thursday. The current Advisory calls for 1-4 inches around
7-9k feet and around 6-10 inches in the higher mountain ranges.
This is a reminder to prep vehicles for winter weather travel as
the cool season begins.

The other storyline worth mentioning is the anomalous warmth
across the south and central part of the countries. High
temperatures will warm into the middle 80s for states like
Illinois and Missouri. This will be around 20 degrees warmer than
typical for Mid-October. The South will continue to be mostly
clear and mild as mid-level ridging continues over the region.
Afternoon temperatures should generally reach the middle to upper
80s with low temperatures mostly in the 60s for this week.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$