854 
FXUS66 KPQR 141640
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
940 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Updated watch/warning/advisories, and near-term and aviation 
discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system continues to move south of 
the Pacific Northwest into northern California, allowing skies 
to stay clear and offshore flow to increase this afternoon. A 
broad upper-level ridge will gradually move overhead today 
through the end of the week, supporting dry weather and near- 
normal temperatures through Saturday. A weak front may brush the
area late Thursday into Friday with a few light showers. By the
weekend, another Pacific front looks increasingly likely to 
move inland, bringing an increased chance of rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...Temperatures within sheltered valleys across the 
region have risen into the mid to upper 30s or warmer so far 
this morning, ending the threat of additional frost or freeze 
conditions. The Freeze Warning in the Upper Hood River Valley 
and Frost Advisory in the Cascade foothills and portions of the 
Willamette, Tualatin, Lower Columbia, and other Coast Range 
valleys has therefore been allowed to expire as of 9 AM PDT. A 
Freeze Watch remains in effect for the Upper Hood River Valley 
again tonight, and additional Frost Advisories may be needed 
elsewhere for further overnight low temperatures in the low to 
mid 30s. See previous discussion below. -36

.DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...Dry weather continues 
through the remainder of today under mostly sunny skies, though 
east winds will persist, particularly through the Columbia River
Gorge where gusts up to 25 to 30 mph remain possible. These 
winds may maintain slightly milder temperatures in exposed 
areas, but elsewhere, the clear and dry conditions will support 
another cold night tonight into early Wednesday morning. Similar
conditions to last night are expected with calm winds and clear
skies for most of the area, allowing for another round of 
frost. Subfreezing temperatures are again favored in the Upper 
Hood River Valley, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect, while
other sheltered valleys may require additional Frost Advisories.

By Wednesday afternoon, the upper low over California will shift
eastward into the Great Basin, allowing weak ridging to build
overhead. This will bring lighter winds and continued dry, mild
fall weather through the end of the week. The ridge will
gradually flatten toward Friday as a weak front approaches from
the northwest. Only spotty light rain is expected with this 
system - mainly along the coast and higher terrain, while most 
interior valleys may remain dry. 

Temperatures will hold near seasonal averages through Saturday,
with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s each afternoon.
Looking ahead, confidence remains fairly high that a more
organized Pacific front will move inland later Saturday or
Sunday. This system should bring the next round of measurable
rainfall. Currently probabilities favor around a 50-70% chance
for at least one inch of rain along the coast, and a 20-40% 
chance inland through Sunday night. ~12

&&

.AVIATION...A persistent weather pattern will continue east
winds and VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. East winds 
will be gusty this afternoon with wind gusts around 20 kt. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mostly east winds for  
the next 24 hours. Wind gusts around 20 kt are expected this 
afternoon between 20z to 03z. ~11

&&

.MARINE...Low pressure continues to drop southward, currently 
located over the coast of Northern California, supporting 
northeast flow through today. Winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
over the central and southern outer coastal waters will slowly 
weaken through today as the pressure gradient over the region 
decreases. Northeasterly winds this morning will slowly shift to
northerly by the evening, then northwesterly by Wednesday. Seas
6-8 feet at 9 seconds will subside to 4-6 feet by Wednesday and
persist around these heights until late Friday.

While the weather pattern remains a bit uncertain for this 
upcoming weekend, model guidance for wave heights has come into 
slightly better agreement. On Saturday, there is moderate to high 
confidence for seas around 7 to 8 ft. Sunday shows a large range 
for potential wave heights. Given the spread in models, there is 
moderate to high confidence that significant wave heights can be 
anywhere from 9 to 18 feet. Low to moderate confidence that the 
most significant wave heights will occur late Sunday. ~12

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for 
     ORZ121.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ272-
     273.

&&

$$

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