919 
FXUS63 KJKL 121140 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather is expected to continue for the
  next seven days for eastern Kentucky.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for much of the upcoming week. 

- While confidence in specific details is low, the next chance of
  rain will likely come next weekend. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. 
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones. Did also issue a short term
SPS for some locally dense valley fog this morning. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley
still dominating the weather for Kentucky though there is a
significant storm off the southeast coast that is sending some
high clouds into eastern parts of the area. These clouds, and some
lingering ones from a nearby dissipating front, did not slow down
the radiational cooling all that much this night. As a result, a 
moderate ridge to valley temperature difference was noted through 
the night along with the development of some fog in the river 
valleys. Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s on the 
hills to the mid 40s in the low spots. Meanwhile, amid light 
northeasterly winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 
40s. 

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the 
forecast. They all depict a twin poled trough east of the Ohio 
Valley and through the Southeast at 5h. The northern center near
Pennsylvania will drift south with time into the start of the new
work week while the southern core slowly lifts north to 
eventually be absorbed into one minima off the Mid-Atlantic Coast 
toward the end of the period. Upstream of this trough ridging will
nose into Kentucky from the southwest keeping the pattern quiet 
and benign over this part of the state - with any mid level energy
staying well to the east through Monday and beyond. The models' 
continued small spread supported the NBM as the starting point of 
the grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just terrain 
driven enhancements to the hourly temperatures at night.

Sensible weather features seasonably warm temperatures during the
days with dry conditions through the start of the new work week.
Any lingering high clouds from the sfc cyclone well east of
Kentucky will likely not interfere with the dry air's ability to 
warm each day. Valley fog can be expected late at night (and early
each morning) along with modest ridge to valley temperature 
differences. 

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures at night along 
with some extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the 
afternoons. Did also tweak afternoon temps a notch higher today, 
as well. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

Once again the main changes to the extended forecast this morning
were to enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to 
valley split to the temperatures each night through the upcoming
week, along with a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the
mix down of lower dewpoints aloft. PoPs still appear to be quite 
limited during the upcoming week but there is increasing 
confidence in chances of showers or storms returning to the area 
for next weekend. 

The previous long term discussion follows:

The beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be 
defined by atmospheric ridging and generally good agreement amongst 
the available pieces of forecast guidance. A cold front is poised to 
approach the forecast area by mid-week, but its impacts will likely 
be limited to only a modest cool down. The pattern begins to shift 
towards the end of the forecast period, but this corresponds with 
increasing model spread and decreasing confidence in the extended-
range sensible weather forecast. Therefore, confidence is high that 
conditions will remain on the dry side through at least Friday, 
October 17th. 

When the period begins on Monday morning, midlevel ridging will be 
building into the greater Ohio River Valley. The influence of this 
feature will increase headed into Tuesday, and the associated 
subsidence and height rises point towards dry and warm sensible 
weather. At the surface, the commonwealth will be positioned between 
a pair of phasing coastal cyclones off the Atlantic coast and a 
quickly-ejecting Canadian low. This leads to a broad area of 
relatively high pressure to the west of the forecast area, which 
favors persistent north-northeasterly surface flow. Together, this 
pattern favors mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures 
for Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s in the 
first half of the work week, with overnight ridge-valley temperature 
splits. While ridgetops will likely see lows in the 50-54 degrees 
range, efficient radiational cooling will allow valleys to easily 
cool into the 40s. This also favors the formation of overnight 
river valley fog, but the persistent dryness could gradually 
reduce the spatial coverage of said fog with each passing night
this week.

By mid-week, the cold front associated with the aforementioned 
Canadian low is forecast to approach the Ohio River Valley, but it 
will be in somewhat of an orphaned state. The ejection of the parent 
cyclone into the Hudson Bay and the northward displacement of all 
mid/upper level dynamic forcing will limit this system's ability to 
produce widespread cloud cover, let alone precipitation. Persistent 
northerly wind components throughout the column will keep the column 
fairly dry before, during, and after FROPA, further suppressing the 
PoPs. There is a signal for some midlevel cloud coverage in the 
northern half of the forecast area on Wednesday associated with the 
front, but the only real sensible weather impact from the mid-week 
system will be slightly cooler temperatures. Efficient diurnal 
warming could still allow cloudless southwestern portions of the 
forecast area to warm to the mid-70s on Wednesday, but overnight 
lows are poised to cool into the 40s area wide by Thursday morning. 
By Thursday afternoon, longwave troughing will have amplified over 
the Eastern CONUS and shunted the early-week ridge back towards the 
Ozarks. This translates towards cooler afternoon MaxTs (upper 60s) 
across the northeastern half of the forecast area, with low 70s 
still forecast closer to the ridge in vicinity of Lake Cumberland.  
  
The shifting of midlevel synoptic features on Thursday marks the 
beginning of an overall pattern change, although the forecast 
guidance suite begins to diverge around this same time. The forecast 
generally trends towards return flow out of the south/southwest at 
some point late next week, although the models vary upon the timing 
and magnitude of the resultant moisture influx. Temperatures tick 
back up towards the mid 70s next weekend, but this warmth could be 
met with returning rain chances just beyond the end of the period. 
It remains too early to provide specifics regarding timing/amounts, 
but there is a signal next weekend for some relief from the 
persistent dryness that we've experienced as of late here in the 
Commonwealth. Before then, expect dryness to dominate the long term 
forecast period and generally pleasant weather for any 
planned outdoor fall activities. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

High pressure will build into eastern Kentucky from the Great 
Lakes through the rest of the weekend while a slow moving low 
pressure system creeps up the eastern seaboard. Some high clouds 
from this latter feature will pass over eastern portions of the 
area during the morning hours. VFR conditions prevailed at 
issuance time and are expected to hold across the region during 
the next 24 hours, with one caveat - fog. Valley fog, locally
dense, will dissipate by 14Z. The TAF sites should remain VFR 
through the period, with a small possibility for some of that fog 
to lift into KSME, KSJS, or KSYM during the next hour or so. There
will be more possibilities of fog interaction late tonight, as
well. Light and variable winds will prevail until around 14Z, 
before the winds become northeast to north at less than 10 kts -
diminishing again to light and variable later this evening. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF