062 
FXUS63 KFSD 111152
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
652 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with gusts of 30-40 mph (strongest west of 
  I-29). Strongest winds will be a bit offset from areas with 
  the lowest relative humidity (around 30% along and east of 
  I-29), but an elevated fire danger can be expected this 
  afternoon and evening.

- Generally above normal temperatures persist into this weekend.
  Normal to a bit below normal temperatures expected next week.

- Rain chances increase (40-70%) Saturday night into Sunday 
  with the passage of a cold front. A few rumbles of thunder are
  possible with this activity, but severe weather is not 
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A few showers are showing up on radar west of the James 
River this morning, but most if not all of this activity is not 
reaching the ground as there is a rather deep, dry sub-cloud layer 
in place across the area. This will be the trend through the day as 
a weak upper-wave moves across the area associated with its parent 
trough located over the Pacific Northwest. Cloud cover associated 
with this wave will help limit high temperatures a bit, but 
temperatures will still be mostly above average due to increasing 
southerly flow at the low-levels of the atmosphere. Highs will be in 
the upper-60s to mid-70s. Speaking of increasing southerly flow, 
winds will pick up through the day as the SPG tightens between a 
high pressure system to our northeast and a developing low to our 
west. Wind gusts will steadily increase through the morning from 
west to east, with peak gusts around 40 mph, strongest in central 
South Dakota. Farther east, less breezy but still could see gusts in 
the 30-35 mph range by the afternoon and evening. Elevated fire 
weather conditions are expected area-wide due to gusty winds. RH 
values will be lowest (around 30%) along and east of I-29, which is 
where winds will be a bit lighter. So that'll help prevent a more 
significant fire weather threat from developing, but it will be
something to keep an eye on.

A second upper-wave will move through the area tonight from west to 
east and bring an additional chance of rain to our area. Soundings 
still indicate a layer of dry air the falling raindrops would have 
to battle, but with a southerly LLJ peaking around 50-60 kts, should 
be able to moisten the low-levels enough to allow for more of this 
rain to reach the ground. The intensity on the ground may still not 
match what the radar may suggests tonight, but should get better 
ground coverage than compared to the daytime hours. Winds will still 
be strong overnight, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible as 
temperatures only drop to the upper-50s to mid-60s. Winds on Sunday 
will be breezy again, with gusts up to 35-40 mph as the LLJ is still 
cranking. Winds should gradually lessen by the late afternoon and 
evening as the LLJ begins to finally settle down. Highs on Sunday 
will be a lot warmer with continued strong, southerly flow as 
temperatures climb to the mid-70s to low-80s. The aforementioned 
Pacific Northwest trough will begin to eject across the northern 
Plains tomorrow, and at the surface we will have a low pressure 
system over North Dakota and its cold front draped across the 
northern and central Plains. After showers from the second upper-
wave move across the area tomorrow morning, we will begin to see 
additional development along the cold front by the mid-afternoon. 
Can't rule out some isolated thunder with any activity Saturday 
night into Sunday as there will at least be some limited elevated 
instability. Severe weather is not expected.

Any showers/storms will exit off to our east with the frontal 
passage tomorrow night, and cooler air will be ushered in heading 
into Monday. Highs on Monday look to be in the upper-50s to mid-60s 
(interestingly enough, the same temperatures as the morning LOWS 
Sunday!). Guidance indicates the potential for additional upper-
waves to move-in mid-week before another Pacific Northwest trough 
moves east across the Rockies into the Plains. Guidance does differ 
in timing and location of this next main trough, so low-confidence 
rain chances at this point continue into the end of the week. As of 
now, the best rain chances next week look to be on Tuesday (20-40% 
chance). Temperatures look to stay near to below normal through the 
first half of next week, before another slight warm-up potentially 
occurs to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Scattered showers with very isolated lightning strikes are out there 
to start the period mainly west of the James River in south-central 
South Dakota. This activity will continue to move east/northeast 
into the afternoon, though not all rainfall will make it to the 
ground. Enough confidence to at least include PROB30 groups at each 
site for this activity, but conditions should remain VFR even in 
showers. The lightning potential should be very isolated, so did not 
include in the TAFs. A second round of showers with perhaps more 
widespread coverage will move into the area this evening into 
tonight. With this round, enough confidence to include prevailing 
-SHRA at KHON to start the night, but confidence decreases farther 
east so PROB30 groups will suffice for the end of the period at KFSD 
and KSUX. Rain should move out of KHON by 09Z tonight. Can't rule 
out some of the showers from 06 to 12Z tonight bringing some drops 
to MVFR cigs, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at 
this time. Also can't rule out some lightning, but once again 
expected to be very isolated. 

Winds will pick up from west to east through the morning, staying 
steadily breezy out of the south throughout the period. Highest 
gusts area-wide will be mainly between 25 and 35 kts, strongest in 
central South Dakota through the period. A 50-60 kt LLJ will crank 
up this evening into tonight, making for LLWS concerns at each TAF 
site. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...Samet