202 
FXUS64 KMOB 091748
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Now through Wednesday...

A strong upper level shortwave dives into a mean upper trough over 
the East Coast into Friday. A cold front that has moved to near the 
northern Gulf Coast moves offshore into Thursday, with drier, cooler 
airmass moving south over the forecast area in response. Enough 
moisture and dynamics from the passing shortwave will help to 
develop a few showers and thunderstorms over areas southeast of I-65 
today, shifting offshore tonight as drier air moves south over the 
forecast area. A developing surface low off the Florida Atlantic 
coast Friday into the weekend will help to slow down the influx of 
drier air temporarily as Atlantic moisture moves inland over the 
Southeast on the north side of the low. As the low moves north along 
the coast Saturday on, dry northerly low level flow is enhanced for 
the rest of the weekend. A surface ridge moves over the forecast 
area and nearby early in the coming week, keeping the dry airmass in 
place through the rest of the forecast. Not to forget, an upper high 
centered over Texas meanders a bit east to varying extents in the 
guidance, leading to a spread in temperatures in the guidance in the 
coming week.

Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal high temperatures in 
the mid to upper 80s Thursday, drop below seasonal for Friday (upper 
70s over the northeastern half of the forecast area to low 80s over 
the southwest). From there, temperatures moderate upwards, into the 
mid to upper 80s by Tuesday as the upper high approaches from west. 
Low temperatures see the same dip the end of the week, from low/mid 
60s north of Highway 84 to low 70s along the coast Wednesday night 
to well below seasonal low to mid 50s over most of the forecast area 
Saturday night. From there, low temperatures see an uptick of a few 
degrees the rest of the forecast. 

Moderate easterly flow will work with an increasing tidal cycle to 
keep a Moderate to at times High Risk of Rip currents into Saturday. 
Winds shift to more northeast over the weekend, with the Rip Risk 
dropping to Low by Sunday.
/16 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A
few isolated showers, or possibly a thunderstorm, may develop
later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Northerly to
northeasterly winds of around 5 to 10 knots, with occasional gusts
to 20 knots, will be possible through the period, especially along
the coast. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Moderate to strong offshore flow will follow a cold front 
moving offshore into Thursday. Winds will ease and become more 
variable in the coming week as a surface ridge moves over the area.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  81  59  83  56  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   65  81  62  83  61  82  62  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      65  81  63  84  62  82  65  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   59  82  53  85  51  86  54  89 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  61  80  55  82  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      59  79  55  82  53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   61  81  56  84  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through 
     Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through 
     Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday 
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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