012 
FXUS63 KMPX 090828
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers & perhaps a few thunderstorms this evening 
across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A more active pattern likely leads to wetter weather late this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Low temperatures early this morning are noticeably warmer than what 
they were 24-hours ago. However, a few sites in western WI 
especially east of the Hwy 63 corridor, could see another round of 
patchy frost this morning. Current satellite imagery showing a 
band of low-level stratus that is beginning to make its way into
western MN from the Dakotas, which is a precursor to the 
leading edge of a cold front that is forecast to advance through
MN/WI later tonight. Ahead of the front, enhanced warming 
during peak heating hours today will occur this afternoon thanks
to a strong 30-40kt 850mb LLJ. Southwesterly wind gusts will 
increase between 20-25kts across western Minnesota where highs 
could reach the mid-70s. Across eastern MN and western WI, upper
60s to lower 70s can be expected. Forcing will increase later 
this afternoon as an upper-level Low sinks down from the 
Canadian Prairies region this evening. As this occurs, showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to initiate across eastern MN 
and eventually shift over to western WI overnight. Forecast 
soundings such as the NAM or GFS feature sufficient elevated 
CAPE that could support a couple of thunderstorms prior to 
losing surface heating. Although the more likely scenario would
be areas of rain shower or sprinkles as a ~3kft dry surface 
layer will exist. As of now, forecast QPF ranges from a couple 
hundredths to near a tenth inch with higher amounts focused to 
western WI. 

Once the cold front pushes through overnight tonight, conditions 
turn quiet for Friday and Saturday as a 1020mb surface high settles 
in over the northern plains. Provided a shift to NW'ly flow, 
temperatures are forecast to range a few degrees cooler especially 
on Friday in the 60s. By Sunday into a Monday, flow aloft will 
amplify and become SW'ly with troughing occurring over the 
Dakotas. As mentioned in previous discussions, ensemble 
guidance continues to support a favorable potential of seeing 
rainfall for much of MN and WI. Portions of west-central MN 
could see as much a half-inch of rainfall whereas farther 
eastward seeing a few tenths of an inch or less. The pattern 
remains active through much of next week, with guidance 
highlighting another likely system for the Upper Midwest midweek
providing widespread rainfall. &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Clear skies overnight with light southeast winds. Winds 
increase late Thursday morning with gusts around 25 kts into the
afternoon across MN. Mid-level clouds will increase throughout 
the morning and a few showers may develop in the evening across 
eastern MN and WI. 

KMSP...No additional concerns through Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...PV