846 
WTNT45 KNHC 090250
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

A very large and cold convective burst has formed near and to the 
east of Jerry this evening, with cloud top temperatures below -80 C 
and plenty of ongoing lightning near the overshooting tops. During 
this period, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been 
sampling the storm, and found a peak 850 mb flight level wind of 66 
kt on their northeast outbound leg of the storm. In addition, there 
was a dropsonde launched in the inner max wind band near the center, 
which had a 500 m mean boundary layer wind of 71 kt and a surface 
wind gust of 55 kt. Using a 0.8 reduction factor to the layer mean 
wind supports the current intensity of 55 kt, which also matched the 
T3.5/55 kt Dvorak estimate provided by TAFB. 

Jerry continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, although the 
convective burst may have slowed down its motion a tad, estimated at 
290/18 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains the same this 
evening, with a subtropical ridge well-established to the northeast 
of the storm, and Jerry will likely be steered around this feature, 
turning to the northwest in 24 hours, and then north by 48 hours. On 
the forecast track, this takes Jerry about 80-100 n mi to the 
northeast of the northern Leeward islands by late tomorrow. There 
remain a few hurricane-regional model outliers to the west (HMON, 
HAFS-A), but these models appear to be struggling to depict the 
cyclone within their inner-nests. The overall track guidance 
envelope has remained pretty steady state this evening, and the NHC 
forecast track is very close to the prior advisory, blending the 
reliable HCCA and GDMI aids. By early next week, the track guidance 
has made a more notable shift south as Jerry recurves around the 
subtropical ridge, and the track forecast was nudged further south 
and east in the 120 h period.  While this track puts Jerry safely 
southeast of Bermuda, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future 
forecasts since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts 
at day 4 have an average error of 130 n mi.

Despite the large convective burst, Jerry still remains under 
moderate to strong northwesterly shear, currently estimated at 
around 25 kt per GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, Jerry has been 
putting up a good fight thus far and its wind field has intensified 
despite the continued unfavorable conditions, likely because of 
other more favorable factors like sea-surface temperatures and an 
unstable environment. The intensity guidance this evening presents a 
challenge. The 18 UTC GFS, and the hurricane-regional models based 
on the GFS, all show very little change in strength and even 
dissipate Jerry in the 72-96 h time frame. However, a glance at the 
short-term model forecast shows the GFS is struggling to correctly 
depict the convective structure of Jerry. To make matters more 
confusing, the last several ECMWF runs now show a much stronger 
Jerry in the 48-96 h time frame, with the 18 UTC run showing a 
strengthening hurricane with pressure below 960 mb. Ultimately, I'm 
going to split the difference between these two extreme solutions, 
showing Jerry slowly intensifying over the next 24-36 h, then 
showing a little more intensification after as the shear decreases 
to 15-20 kt in 36 h after the tropical cyclone passes north of the 
Leeward Islands. Needless to say this is a low confidence intensity 
forecast, and overall the NHC forecast is on the high side of 
the guidance envelope.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.2N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.4N  58.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.0N  60.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 20.1N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 22.5N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 25.0N  62.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 27.4N  62.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 31.2N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 32.3N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin