283 
FXUS63 KFSD 071845
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
145 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of a very low risk of sprinkles this afternoon, 
  persistent dry weather is expected to continue into Saturday.

- Temperatures near normal today will rise above normal into 
  the weekend.

- Increasing southerly winds by the end of the week will lead 
  to low fire danger risks. At this time critical red flag 
  conditions are not expected. 

- Rain chances Saturday through Monday continue, but coverage 
  remains very uncertain. Rainfall amounts at this point favor 
  low totals (less than 0.50"). 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures continue to warm through the 60s this 
afternoon, as winds are quite light.  However a few very weak 
convergence areas, combined with very weak dPVA, may lead to 
isolated sprinkles. Best convergence falls along a line from 
Brookings to Spencer, so will include a low end mention of sprinkles 
this afternoon. 

TONIGHT:  Skies clear and winds turn light and variable, suggesting 
that temperatures will drop even further than Monday night. 
Have lowered temperatures, especially in valley areas where lows
may fall into the middle 30s once again. Patchy frost will be 
possible in those valley areas by Wednesday morning, but at this
point not widespread enough for an advisory.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Winds turn southerly on Wednesday as mid-lvl 
heights rise and modest return flow develops. Outside of an 
increase in afternoon CU, the most noticeable impact Wednesday 
will be high temperatures climbing into the 70s in most areas. A
VERY weak mid-lvl trough passes through the Tri-State area 
Wednesday night into Thursday. While chances are quite low, 
there remains an intersect between low-lvl moisture and the 
convergence of the LLJ through the Tri-State area after midnight
and through daybreak. Wouldn't rule out an isolated shower 
developing into mid-morning Thursday mostly along or east of 
I-29. A surface front approaches central South Dakota late 
Thursday, allowing breezy afternoon winds to subside slightly by
the evening. Any overnight rain chances appears to have shifted
east of the CWA into Friday morning.

FRIDAY: The aforementioned surface front moves through the CWA by 
Friday morning, allowing a bit more influence of surface high 
pressure moving into the Northern Plains during the day. The shift 
to a more northerly wind may limit the rise in temperatures 
slightly, suggesting the NBM highs could be a bit too warm. 
Regardless, dry conditions are expected into Saturday. 

SATURDAY-MONDAY: The mid-lvl ridge axis shifts east of I-29 by 
Saturday, but a slow eastward progression of the surface high 
pressure over the Great Lakes may influence both temperatures and 
winds through the day. Latest mid-lvl guidance continues to hint at 
a slightly weaker, southeasterly to easterly wind component during 
the day, as scattered showers try to develop and move northeast 
through the area in the afternoon and evening. There remains a 
6-hr variance in the arrival of precipitation, so those with 
outdoor plans should continue to monitor the forecast. 

Surface cyclogenesis over western South Dakota in response to 
troughing moving into the Central Rockies will induce a stronger SPG 
through the region on Sunday.  This will push the focus for the 
strongest southerly winds into the daytime hours of Sunday, along 
and ahead of an approaching late day front.  The 50 knot LLJ ahead 
of this boundary could lead to isolated to scattered showers early 
Sunday morning, but it appears most of the area may stay very 
warm and dry until the passage of the cold front Sunday 
evening/night. 

Depending on the forward progression of the front, track of the 
associated upper trough, and amount of lingering moisture, we could 
see showers continue into Sunday.  However QPF is likely to stay on 
the lower side with the 75th percentile of the GEFS/ECAM/GEPS all 
suggesting less than 0.25-0.50" totals and most of this may be 
scattered in nature. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble and EC AIFS remain 
significantly higher with QPF than both the GFS/CMC platforms. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to continue into
Wednesday. By sunset winds will once again turn light and
variable in many areas. A gradual southerly wind component 
develops by mid-morning Wednesday with occasional gusts over 20 
knots west of the James River valley.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux