755 
FXUS63 KGLD 032320
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Strong southerly winds potentially gusting to 55 mph remain
  forecast Saturday across most of the area. Some blowing dust
  is also possible with visibility reductions near source
  regions.

- A few severe storms capable of wind gusts up to 65 mph and 
  blowing dust are also possible Saturday evening currently 
  favoring western portions of the area. 

- Breezy to strong southerly winds, above normal temperatures
  and low relative humidity (15-25%) will also create elevated
  to locally critical fire weather conditions on Friday and 
  Saturday. Outdoor burning is not advised.
  
- Cooler, with normal to below normal temperatures Sunday 
 through the middle portion of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The area is starting to feel the effects of the troughing across the 
western CONUS as 850mb and 700mb jets are starting to increase. As 
this occurs winds will gradually start increasing across the area 
this afternoon with gusts of 20-35 mph currently forecast. The 
windiest conditions are currently forecast across eastern 
portions of the forecast area due to the jet being strongest. 
The southerly winds are also helping warm the temperatures as 
well with many locales in the mid to upper 80s across the 
forecast area. Western portions are forecast to see dewpoints 
fall as well as downsloping winds become more prevalent 
resulting in the potential for some locally critical fire 
weather conditions. Winds across this area are however forecast 
to be around 20-25 mph helping limit overall fire weather 
concerns. Overnight the low level jets associated with the 
trough are forecast to continue to increase. Some minor pressure
falls across the area should continue to keep winds mixed with 
wind gusts around 30-35 mph continuing throughout the night. 
The continued mixing and winds continuing are forecast to keep 
overnight lows from falling to much as well as much of the area 
is currently not forecast to fall below 55-60 degrees. 

Saturday, continues to have the makings of a potential multi hazard 
day as the trough continues to get closer to the area. Confidence is 
high to very high in wind gusts of 35-45 mph occurring across most 
if not all of the forecast area as the 850mb and 700mb jets remain 
across the area. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the 
strength of the winds with a solid 42-48 knot winds throughout
the mixing layer. Other guidance is in the 35-40 knot range 
throughout the mixing layer. GFS typically does do the best in 
windier scenarios so have tailored the forecast towards that so 
the potential is there for 50-55 mph winds and would not be 
surprised if some isolated 60 mph wind gusts were to occur. 

With the wind, blowing dust will be a concern as well as we have had 
multiple warm and breezy days and little rainfall over the past 
week. NASASPORT continues to show drying of the 0-10cm soil moisture 
falling into the mid teens to low 20s across most of the area. At 
this time not anticipating widespread blowing dust concerns as 
the winds may not be strong enough to get numerous plumes of 
blowing dust going and any that do get going should rise into 
the atmosphere given high mixing heights and no capping level 
present via the 2- 2.5cm lapse rates. Still can't rule out some 
localized brownout conditions near source regions but current 
thinking is that more of a haze will be present. This haze also 
may affect air quality as well. 

Elevated fire weather will also be a concern as well given the 
winds. I did bring down dew points to some of the lower guidance as 
forecast soundings show drier air just above the surface that should 
be easily mixed down. With this and being on the warmer side of 
guidance am still struggling to get humidity values lower than the 
upper teens to low 20s. I did take into consideration the forecasted 
winds to perhaps equal out not quite being to the 15% threshold for 
Red Flag Warnings but fuel partners stated that with fuels still 
being so marginal fires still may not rapidly spread so opted 
to hold off on any fire products. 

Next part of the day will be a cold front moving towards the area 
which is forecast to lead to some showers and storm potential. The 
cold front will also lead to a wind shift which would make the 
response to any fire more difficult. Showers and storms with the 
cold front are forecast to move into eastern Colorado around 6-7pm 
MT. Continue to think that damaging winds up to 65 mph will be the 
main threat with any storm given the wind field in place and steep 
lapse rates. There is potential however which does have a history of 
happening that convective winds sometimes do not materialize 
given the strong synoptic winds and winds actually weakening 
with the storms. Some hail threat may materialize as well if we
can get a long lived, strong updraft as wind shear will be very
strong which would keep frozen droplets aloft longer 
especially given a shallow freezing level around 12,000 feet. 
However do have concerns that the strength of the wind shear 
will shear apart updrafts before large hail can become a concern
given meager MUCAPE of around 500 j/kg. The other aspect of the
storms is that if any outflow can emanate then blowing dust may
again be a concern potentially in the form of haboob. Any 
severe threat should be ended no later than 12am MT. Winds will 
gradually diminish through the night as we lose influence of the
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the day Sunday in 
wake of the cold front.  Breezy winds are forecast to continue as 
well but not to the extent of Sunday as the 850 and 700mb jets are 
forecast to weaken as we lose synoptic influence; wind gusts of
25- 30 mph are still possible however. High temperatures are 
currently forecast in the low 70s to low 80s across the area 
but may be a little bit cooler if the front moves through 
quicker. A quick moving shortwave during the evening and 
overnight hours across northern portions of the area may lead to
some showers and storms but severe weather is not anticipated 
with that activity. A severe threat across eastern portions of 
the area may also develop but will be highly dependent of the 
positioning of the cold front.

Through the remainder of the week mainly zonal flow is forecast to 
ensue continuing more normal temperatures for October standards. A 
few surface highs are also forecast to nudge into the area Tuesday 
and Wednesday mornings which may yield some strong radiational 
cooling potential which may lead to some frost concerns. Towards the 
latter portion of the week starting to see some signals for a 
similar pattern to what is ongoing right now which may lead to 
another risk for warmer temperatures and windy conditions towards 
the latter part of the week and into the weekend but still remains a 
bit to far out to nail down details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will remain breezy to windy through the
period from the south to southwest. Nocturnal low level jet will
result in low level wind shear this evening through Saturday
morning. Some blowing dust is possible Saturday afternoon, but 
confidence is low that visibility will be lowered enough to 
impact operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are 
forecast to continue through the remainder of the afternoon with
the main concern for locally critical conditions across eastern
Colorado. The wind is forecast to continue through the night 
and strengthen at the surface Saturday morning as the nocturnal
inversion breaks around 14-15Z. High confidence in wind gusts 
of 35-45 mph and sustained winds of 25-35 mph; would also not be
surprised if wind gusts around 55 mph can occur if enough 
mixing can be achieved. For the forecast have went a little 
lower on dew points as forecast soundings show drier air just 
above the surface that should have no problem mixing down. The 
biggest issue is that fuels are still marginal and there is some
green in vegetation as well that may help keep dew points a tad
bit further increased. Given the high likelihood of strong 
winds did still contemplate fire weather products but per fuel 
partner feedback with myself being on the lower end of dew 
points and still struggling to get forecasted RH to fall out of 
the upper teens to low 20s with the marginal nature of the fuels
that it would still be difficult to justify fire weather 
products at this time. Now this may change if additional 
guidance continues to come in lower with dew points. 

Showers ands storms are forecast to develop along a cold front
which may support some dry lightning potential but confidence 
in lighting coverage is a bit lower due to meager amounts of 
elevated CAPE in place. These storms may also be capable of 
wind gusts up to 65 mph and blowing dust as well which if a fire
were to start would make responding to a fire very difficult.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg