181 
FXUS64 KAMA 032313
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

-Breezy winds, especially in the northwest Panhandles on Saturday
 could lead to slightly elevated Fire Weather conditions, given
 the recent drying trend.

-Watching a weather system next week that could bring
 precipitation chances back to the Panhandles as early as Sunday
 night, and chances will increase and continue through at least
 mid week. 

-Highs mid to late next week look to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler
 than this weekend which is expected to be in the upper 80s to
 lower 90s.
 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

High pressure currently over the southern high plains will slowly
shift east as an approaching trough from the Pacific Northwest
makes its way across northern NV and the Salt Lake area tonight
into tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies today with some mid and high
clouds. Overall, a pretty strong cap at 700mb should keep these
mid clouds in check and if any cloud manages to produce a shower,
it will be a struggle to reach the ground given the drier air
toward the surface. Tomorrow's highs should be pretty close to
today, but just a tad cooler, as heights will begin to fall from
the approaching trough, and we're looking at some breezy winds
helping keep the air mixed. Lee surface low expected to set up in
southeast CO that will lead to tightened surface gradients and
sustained winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph.
Highest winds expected in the northwest. 

Will just make a small foot note, that we've been dry for a 
little while, but the overall drought conditions are still normal 
for the northwest Panhandles (Where we expect the strongest 
winds). That being said, given how dry it's been, we should still 
take precautions to avoid doing any activities that can create a 
spark or open flame. If a fire were to start with heavier fuel 
loading under these winds, it might show moderate resistance to 
control. So there is a mention of elevated Fire Weather in the
northwest Saturday only. This will be all wind driven as we expect
the RH values to be around 20 percent.  

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

We continue to track this weather system thats progged to
retrograde northwest and remain positively tilted over the Idaho
area and keeping southwest flow over the Panhandles on Sunday.
This system still has a high level of uncertainty as to what the
outcome will be. Lately we've been shown a pretty well stalled
boundary that separates the warm and cold airmass, and that
boundary extends all the way to the Great Lakes Region. Good
surface convergence along that boundary will set up for the
potential to get several rounds of showers and storms. And with
PWAT's in the 1-1.5" range while that boundary lingers from Sunday
night through Wednesday, can't rule out the chance for excessive
rainfall. But there's still a high level of uncertainty as to
where that boundary will set up, which could lead to a more drier
solution if it moves north, to the southern Panhandles getting
better chances if it moves south. The temperatures will be
impacted as well, since there's some cooler fall like air on the
other side of the boundary it's possible for one area of the
Panhandles to be in the 60's while an area well to the south is 
in the 80's. Previous model runs were suggesting this would be on 
Wednesday, now the shift is towards Tuesday being the coolest day,
and then we transition back to warmer temperatures to the end of 
the extended as high pressure rebuilds. It does appear that we 
could have more rounds of storms on Wednesday and Thursday 
depending on another disturbance, and if the ridge will be more 
established, keeping that disturbance further north. 

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Although some marginal LLWS could occur at KGUY overnight, VFR sky
conditions are forecast over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be breezy
out of the south, sustained around 15 kts tonight, increasing to
20-25 kts tomorrow. Highest gusts will be in the 30-35 kt range 
during the afternoon hours. 

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38