414 
FXUS65 KVEF 032142
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
242 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the 
  region into tonight, with a few showers possible over the far 
  southern Great Basin and Sierra. 

* Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend 
  before rising back to near normal levels next week.

* Dry weather is expected from tomorrow through at least Wednesday. 
  By the second half of next week there is the potential for 
  tropical moisture to move into the Desert Southwest, but a lot of 
  uncertainty remains. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday. 

An upper-level area of low pressure centered east of the Bay Area 
will continue to move east tonight and Saturday.  Ahead of this 
system, gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are ongoing across 
southern Nevada and portions of southeast California. Wind 
advisories remain in effect for the Spring Mountains and the western 
Mohave Desert through this evening, and will expand to include the 
Mojave Preserve and Morongo Basin/Twentynine Palms this evening. 
Gusty winds are also possible along the US-95 corridor between Las 
Vegas and Mercury due to downslope flow off the Spring Mountains. 
Winds will diminish overnight and Saturday morning as the low moves 
east.  Farther north, scattered showers and a few embedded 
thunderstorms remain possible through sunset across the southern 
Great Basin and along the higher ridges of the Sierra and White 
Mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light, and no significant 
impacts are anticipated.  However, a few inches of early season snow 
are also possible over the highest Sierra peaks. 

As this low exits the region to the northeast, a broad weak trough 
will linger, maintaining relatively low 500mb heights for this time 
of year, and keep temperatures below seasonable norms into the first 
half of the week. Readings will rebound to near normal levels by 
Wednesday as a ridge develops over the Southwest.  

Confidence decreases for the second half of the week as a trough of 
low pressure approaches the West Coast, while a potential tropical 
system moves north near the Baja Peninsula. The interaction of these 
two systems will determine conditions for the end of the week.  If 
the trough remains weaker and farther north, more ridging would 
remain in place across the Southwest likely steering the tropical 
system away from the region.  However, if the trough is stronger and 
further south, moisture from the tropical system could be funneled 
up into our area bringing the potential for rain next weekend. Stay 
tuned to see how the interactions of these two systems play out. 
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty 
southwest winds of 25 to 35 knots will persist into early evening. 
After sunset, winds will diminish somewhat, with a brief lull 
possible late tonight ahead of a northwesterly wind shift as a cold 
front moves into the valley shortly after daybreak. A period of 
gusty northwesterly winds is expected during the late morning, 
followed by speeds decreasing tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR 
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with FEW-SCT clouds 
around 25kft AGL into tonight, then becoming SKC tomorrow.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will 
continue across the region into this evening, with gusts of 25 to 35 
mph common. Winds will remain elevated across the western Mojave 
Desert through the night while other areas should decrease to less 
than 15 knots. A cold front moving south into the region will be 
accompanied by a northwesterly wind shift, which is expected to move 
through southern Nevada terminals tomorrow morning and the Colorado 
River Valley sites by midday. VFR conditions will prevail in most 
areas with FEW-SCT clouds around 25kft through tonight, then 
becoming mainly SKC tomorrow. The exception will be across the 
northern Sierra and White Mountains, as well as the southern Great 
Basin, where a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible 
through 03Z this evening.  CIGs down to 10kft AGL are possible in 
the vicinity of this activity.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Planz 

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