693 
FXUS63 KMQT 031918
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storms linger throughout the daytime hours
  today before we dry out again for the weekend.

- Unseasonable warmth continues to this weekend with daytime
  highs 15-20 degrees above normal on Saturday. Max high
  temperature records could be broken across several spots this
  weekend.

- Warm, breezy, and dry weather may lead to limited fire weather
  conditions this weekend.

- Southerly gales are possible across Lake Superior Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

As weak warm air advection returns to the area from the south-
southwest this afternoon, moisture-rich air with some help the lake 
breeze boundaries moving in have allowed some isolated showers and 
thunderstorms to develop across the U.P. this afternoon behind the 
'cold front' that left earlier today. With winds being lighter today 
than yesterday, no fire weather concerns are expected this 
afternoon, even though high temperatures are still projected to get 
into the 70s to lower-80s this afternoon across Upper Michigan. Once 
the sun sets and the diurnal heating goes away, expect the last of 
the showers and storms to dwindle away and end across the U.P. this 
evening. While drier air begins to advect into the area from the 
south tonight into Saturday, we could see some fog develop over the 
central U.P. tonight depending on how much (if any) rainfall 
occurs); although most spots are shouldn't see all that much (a 
tenth of an inch or less), areas under the heaviest showers and 
storms could see a wetting rainfall (0.10-0.25+ inch) this afternoon 
and thus some patchy fog tonight; the area that has the greatest 
chance for a wetting rainfall and thus patchy fog is the south 
central. 

Moving into Saturday and even Sunday, expect even warmer 
temperatures that what we're feeling today, with record-tying or 
breaking highs expected on Saturday across the entire area and 
potentially even into Sunday too as a low pressure system lifts from 
the Plains into northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, expect the 
winds to pick up from the south across the region, gusting up to 30+ 
mph at times Saturday and potentially even over 40 mph at times on 
Sunday. While min RHs are projected to remain above 30%, given that 
temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal, the strong 
winds, and the lack of recent rainfall across most of the area, 
elevated fire weather concerns cannot be ruled out across large 
portions of Upper Michigan for this weekend at this time; expect 
highs Saturday to soar into the 80s, with some of the downslopes 
near Lake Superior like Ontonagon potentially flirting with 90(!) 
degrees for a high. While temperatures won't be as warm on Sunday, 
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are still expected. 

Eventually the cold front of the aforementioned low moves through 
the region late Sunday to Monday. While there is a low (~20%) chance 
that we could see some showers and storms along and just ahead of 
the front, the best chance for rainfall looks to be just south and 
east of the U.P. on Monday. Thus, the best chance for seeing 
rainfall looks to happen over the eastern half on Monday when the 
cold front is leaving the area and high pressure is quickly moving 
in from the west. Expect the windy conditions along and immediately 
behind the front to calm down rather fast Sunday night into Monday 
morning due to the rapidly approaching high pressure. In addition, 
temperatures are expected to be much more normal by Monday, with 
highs only expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmest in 
the south central and east). The near-normal temperatures are 
expected to continue through to the middle of next week as flow 
becomes more zonal Monday into Tuesday. Another shortwave low 
dropping down from Canada could bring some lake effect rain showers 
to the U.P. come late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, with medium 
range guidance increasing high pressure at the sfc in conjunction 
with the cold air advection with the low, I'm beginning to think 
that we may just see nothing more than stronger winds and cooler 
temperatures for the middle of next week. Expect a slight warming 
trend for late next week as another system could impact the area to 
end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail trough the TAF period. Expect light 
winds today with isolated showers along a lake breeze boundary over 
the northern U.P. IWD and SAW would have the best opportunity to see 
a shower, however, probabilities of occurrence (10-20%) are too low 
to include a mention in the TAF. Gusty winds are expected Saturday 
afternoon and will start to pick up at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Light winds of around 20 knots or less continue over the lake this 
afternoon into this evening as weak high pressure ridging scoots 
through the area. However, as a troughing pattern begins to move 
into northwestern Ontario Saturday with a low lifting from the 
Plains into northern Ontario Sunday, expect the winds to pick up 
from the south, getting up to 20 to 30 knots by Saturday evening and 
increasing to 25 to a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots by Sunday 
morning. Ahead of and immediately behind a cold front passing 
through the lake late Sunday, south to southwest gales up to 40 
knots could potentially occur, with the strongest winds expected 
near the Keweenaw, near Isle Royale, and the eastern open waters. As 
of the time of this writing, the chances for low-end (35 knot) gales 
or greater are around 30 to 70%, with the highest chance for gales 
over the eastern open lake. In addition to the winds, an isolated 
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, but chances for 
precipitation are low (~20%) at this time. The exception is over the 
eastern lake where chances increase to around 50% as some diurnal 
heating could help convection develop Monday. 

Once the cold front passes, expect winds to rapidly weaken, becoming 
generally 20 knots or less again by Monday afternoon. Westerly zonal 
flow from Monday into Tuesday could allow winds to pick up to 20 to 
25 knots between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale Monday night into 
Tuesday before another shortwave dropping a cold front through the 
lake sometime Tuesday/Tuesday evening brings west to northwest winds 
of 20 to 30 knots back over the lake. 

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for 
     LSZ162-242>250-263>266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP