918 
FXUS62 KMLB 031917
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Wet weather pattern next several days with increased 
  winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy 
  rainfall. Localized flooding will be a concern through the 
  weekend and possibly into early next week, especially along the 
  coast where a Flood Watch has been issued through at least 
  Saturday night.

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions including life-
  threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near
  times of high tide, will continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Sloppy pattern over Florida as a 
weakening cutoff low meanders in the base of ridging over the 
eastern US. Somewhat elongated surface high pressure centered over
the Mid-Atlantic seaboard roughly parallels the coast, with a 
fairly tight north-northeasterly pressure gradient on the southern
side draped across Florida, resulting in east-northeast winds 
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 
30 mph along the coast. This brisk onshore flow laden with low- 
level moisture is whipping up scattered to at times numerous quick
moving showers, but drier air aloft is keeping nearly all this 
activity low-topped. Have seen a few sporadic lightning storms 
down south closer to higher moisture associated with a remnant 
frontal boundary extending from Southeast Florida to The Bahamas, 
but that's about it. This is also where banding/training of 
moderate to heavy showers has been occurring most frequently, but 
given the lack of deep moisture and forcing in the immediate area,
rainfall rates have rarely exceeded 1"/hr since earlier this 
morning. Latest HREF/RRFS 6-hr 90th percentile accumulations are 
topping out at 2-3", indicating the threat for flash flooding 
today has decreased and today's Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
has been dropped. That said, this is a marathon not a sprint, and
the cumulative effects of rounds/bands of heavy rainfall over 
several days could gradually lead to minor flooding of low-lying 
and poor drainage area as soils become saturated and the 
effectiveness of drainage decreases. We're already seeing some 
recurring flooding in low-lying areas, particularly in spots 
prone to flooding along the Intracoastal Waterway as increasing 
tides as the king tides approach compound the issue. The coastal 
corridor remains highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all East 
Central Florida coastal counties, and the Coastal Flood Advisory 
has been extended to include the whole coast and Intracoastal 
Waterways.

At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft will continue to 
pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- 
threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune line will 
continue to cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high
tide which will occur between 4-7am and again 4-7pm (the higher 
of the two) the next few days.

Saturday-Sunday...The cutoff low aloft further erodes as ridging 
over the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard in response to 
troughing over the western US. Surface high pressure over the 
eastern US centered near the Mid-Atlantic seaboard shifts slowly 
offshore, but the tight easterly pressure gradient on the southern
side of the high remains draped across Florida and the local 
Atlantic waters. A weak surface low has developed over the Bahamas
about 300 miles southeast of Saint Lucie Inlet, which NHC 
continues to only give a very low (10%) chance of tropical 
development due to unfavorable upper level winds. Confidence in 
the evolution of this feature has been low due to weak forcing and
lack of a developed feature, which is unfortunate because it has 
considerable implications for our forecast this weekend and 
beyond. Now that a feature has finally developed seeing better 
model agreement from the 12Z suite, with both the GFS and ECM 
bringing a very weak low/wave west-northwest towards South 
Florida, further tightening the pressure gradient across Central 
Florida that would continue hazardous coastal and marine 
conditions, and bringing additional moisture that would support a 
heavy rainfall threat. However, the pace this plays out is slower 
than previous guidance suggested, and currently seeing the 
greatest potential for heavy rainfall shifting into Sunday, but 
will need a couple more forecast cycles before we can more 
confidently say when and where (and frankly if) a scenario 
supporting substantial heavy rainfall will materialize. In the 
meantime, the brisk onshore flow will remain sufficient enough to 
whip up scattered to numerous onshore moving showers regardless of
development/evolution of the wave/low, banding/training of 
moderate to heavy showers will remain possible, and locations that
receive multiple rounds will become increasingly susceptible to 
flooding. In particular are coastal Volusia and Martin counties 
where soils are reaching saturation. The East Central Florida 
coast continues to be outlined in Marginal (level 1 of 4) and 
Slight (level 2 of 4) risks for excessive rainfall where coastal 
convergence maximizes the threat, a Flood Watch remains in effect 
for all ECFL coastal counties, and a Coastal Flood Advisory 
remains in effect for all ECFL coastal zones, including the 
Intracoastal Waterways.

Beach and marine conditions will remain hazardous, and could even
worsen depending how the low/wave evolves. High Surf Advisories,
Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect. We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns River
where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river flooding. The
river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at Astor.

Monday-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Moist onshore
flow is forecast to continue into early next week then eventually
some drier air is forecast to move in, but there confidence when
this happens is low at this time. The official forecast based on
06Z guidance starts drying by Tuesday, but the incoming 12Z
guidance hints at prolonging high rain chances a bit longer, and
the threat for heavy rainfall. Model guidance is at least
consistent showing another strong high pressure developing over
the eastern CONUS mid week, keeping a brisk onshore flow through
the week, then late in the week bringing back moisture supporting
onshore moving showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Solid Small Craft Advisory 
conditions are occurring over the local Atlc waters as tight NE to
E pressure gradient around sfc high along the eastern seaboard 
supports ENE winds at 20-25 knots. These winds and long period
swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous 
conditions will persist through the weekend. A weak low has
developed over The Bahamas, and could further tighten the pressure
gradient, but there is some uncertainty how much and when. There 
should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient early next week
as winds turn E-SE behind the departing low. While speeds should 
dip below 20 knots esp across the southern waters, seas will be 
slow to subside. A further extension of the SCA appears likely for
the offshore waters into early next week. Meanwhile, moisture 
increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers 
and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water 
lightning this weekend into early next week. Some drying should 
eventually move in from the northeast mid-week but it looks short-
lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Showers with isolated lightning storms continue to push onshore 
and across the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH
across all terminals through the period as rounds of showers 
persist. While VFR conditions will dominate, brief MVFR 
conditions in passing showers will be possible. Due to the brief
nature of the impacts from these showers, have continued not to
include TEMPOs at this time. However, will continue to monitor 
for any localized banding of showers, and a few amendments can't 
be ruled out. Breezy and gusty east-northeast winds of 15-20 KT
with gusts of 25-30 KT this afternoon and early evening. Winds
will remain gusty along the coast overnight with gusts up to 20
KT, while winds will decrease to around 10 KT across the interior.
East to northeast winds will increase by mid morning on Saturday
to 15-20 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  83  74  84 /  50  60  60  70 
MCO  72  84  74  86 /  30  50  40  60 
MLB  75  84  75  84 /  50  60  60  60 
VRB  75  84  75  85 /  50  60  60  60 
LEE  72  84  73  85 /  20  40  30  60 
SFB  73  84  74  85 /  40  60  50  70 
ORL  73  84  74  85 /  40  50  40  70 
FPR  75  84  75  86 /  50  60  60  60 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson