National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDSHV
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV
Product Timestamp: 2025-10-03 19:02 UTC
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100 FXUS64 KSHV 031902 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue this afternoon through much of the upcoming weekend. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will return to portions of North Louisiana Sunday, and to much of the region for the first half of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Drier air has begun to backdoor W across Srn AR/N LA early this afternoon, as evidenced by the back edge of the N-S cu field noted on the visible satellite imagery, as well as the sharp gradient noted in the sfc isodrosotherms in the midday sfc analysis. In fact, this gradient of drier air has served as a weak forcing mechanism for the development of isolated -SHRA just W of Toledo Bend Dam over upper SE TX, which should continue shifting WSW as the drier air continues to deepen as it mixes W through the afternoon. Despite the dry air intrusion, above normal temps will continue this afternoon, with the air mass gradually beginning to modify from the ESE late tonight as the weak upper low over Srn MS/Coastal SE LA begins to drift back to the W. Thus, low level moisture associated with the scattered cu field over Ern MS/AL this afternoon will spread W into our region through the day, with an upward nudge in dewpoints expected (compared to what will be observed this afternoon). The presence of sfc ridging extending from the OH valley SW into ECntrl TX will result in good radiational cooling tonight, and given the dry air in place, will result in comfortable temps as they fall mostly fall in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Unfortunately, Fall remains no where in sight as above normal temps will continue this weekend through the remainder of the extended period (and possibly beyond). While another dry day is expected Saturday, the Wwd drift of the weak opening low will result in higher PW air to edge back W into N LA Sunday, with the potential for at least isolated afternoon convection to track NW into this area. Did expand upon the smaller area of slight chance pops the NBM continued to advertise over N LA given the good model consensus, with the potential for greater isolated to widely scattered coverage over more of the area Monday and Tuesday, as this weakness aloft lingers. By midweek, flat upper ridging from the Srn Plains along the Gulf Coast looks to persist through at least the end of the work week, although its Ewd extent will be dependent on the extent of troughing aloft that develops from the Nrn Plains into the Great Lakes Region. This in turn may send a weak cool front into the area for late week. But until then (if it does at all), above normal temps will persist, as will the return to the dry conditions. 15 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected across the airspace through the remainder of the afternoon, falling under a layer of afternoon CU around 5kft. Isolated shower coverage looks to be primarily south of the airspace though a stray shower near LFK can't be ruled out through sunset. That being said, the rest of the airspace will continue to see the CU field through sunset with SKC and VFR remaining overnight and into Saturday. Surface terminal winds will primarily be easterly, between 5-10kt. CU field should be minimal tomorrow but elected to include a mention of FEW around 5kft through the early afternoon. 53 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 63 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 61 90 65 87 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 56 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 61 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 57 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 62 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 60 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 63 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...53