999 
FXUS66 KLOX 031826
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
1126 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/936 AM.

The beginning of October will continue the trend of cooler than
normal weather into next week. Gusty northerly winds are expected 
in portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties 
and the coastal waters this afternoon through late tonight. Little
changes in sensible weather into next week, but the end of next 
week is hinting at an active pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/944 AM.

***UPDATE***

Another day of well below normal temperatures, especially inland.
The marine layer depth is around 4000 feet but coverage is spotty,
especially west of Ventura County. The only weather issue of note
today is some gusty winds near the coast and over the western
portion of the Santa Ynez Range as well as over the coastal 
waters. Should see that tomorrow as well but not quite as
widespread.

***From Previous Discussion***

Sundowner winds with isolated gusts to 45 mph will continue into 
early this morning, but the stronger and more widespread round of 
Sundowners is expected tonight, with gusts up to 50 mph across 
portions of southern Santa Barbara County, thus a wind advisory 
has been issued. Strongest winds will generally be confined to the
Santa Ynez Mountains and foothills along with the coasts west of 
Goleta, but Santa Barbara City and Goleta will likely see 
northerly winds up to 30 mph at times this afternoon into the 
evening. Gusty winds will impact the eastern and southeastern 
portion of SB County through the northern and northwestern portion
of Ventura County as well, and additional wind advisories may be 
needed. In Addison to Sundowners, northerly winds up to 40 mph 
will impact much of northern Los Angeles County, but wind 
advisories have been issued for the windiest areas including the 
I-5 corridor from the Santa Clarita Valley to the Kern County 
border, along with the northwestern Antelope Valley and foothills.
Some lighter offshore winds will occur Saturday

As far as temperatures go, almost the entirety of the area will 
see highs max out in the 70s today, with Central Coast beaches 
remaining in the upper 60s. Although, a lack of marine layer cloud
coverage may lead to slightly warmer temperatures along the 
Central Coast. Temps will rise a few degrees in most places 
Saturday thanks offshore wind trends. Not expecting a ton of day 
to day changes in temps in the remainder of the short term.

The marine layer is beginning to fill in, especially across
Ventura and LA Counties, but it remains fairly disorganized at the
moment. Expecting coverage tonight into Sunday morning to be less
widespread as winds trend offshore. Minimal marine layer coverage
is expected until overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/219 AM.

Not much to talk about in the beginning of the extended forecast.
Morning and nighttime low clouds should become more expansive in 
the beginning of next week as both west to east and south to north
pressure gradients become more positive. Little day to day 
changes are expected in the way of the sensible weather, with the 
exception of a slight warming trend across the interior as onshore
downsloping winds will lead to some adiabatic heating.

A bit further out into the Thursday through Saturday time frame, 
there is the possibility of some subtropical moisture moving into 
the area as models indicate another tropical storm develops off 
the Baja Mexico coast (in addition to the currently named TS
Octave). An interesting setup may be brewing as a colder trough 
digs south and moves into the California Coast sometime next 
weekend and may be able to tap into some of that tropical 
moisture. Confidence in any details remains very low at this time 
as models are in disagreement about the track of the tropical 
mositure and the timing and location of the trough. However, it is
something to watch for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1825Z.

At 1726Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Good confidence in wind direction, but wind gusts could be off 
5 to 10 kts. 

Overall, moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Wind gusts could 
be off 5 to 10 kts through 06Z Saturday. For KBUR and KVNY, low 
confidence in timing of wind direction shifts through 09Z Sat.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites after 00Z Sat, with a 
low to very low chance of cigs developing at KPRB after 10Z Sat. 

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. After 06Z Sat, there is a 
40% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts through 16Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of wind shifts may be 
off by 2 hours. Intermittent periods of MVFR CIGs are possible
through 00Z Sat, then VFR conditions are expected through the 
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...03/756 AM.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters around Point 
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the 
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon into the 
late night hours. Along with dangerous seas, winds up to 40 kts 
are possible. Localized Gale force wind gusts are possible for the
waters nearshore along the Central Coast out to 30 NM from shore 
this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger
following Gale force winds for the outer waters and portions of 
the inner waters thru Saturday night. After Saturday night, 
conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria through 
mid-week. 

For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high 
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds this afternoon 
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach & 
northward). Localized Gale force winds will occur from Anacapa 
Island to Point Mugu and Santa Barbara Island during this period. 
Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria
through mid-week. 

Seas will be large and very choppy, peaking between 8 and 12 feet
for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast waters, and 5 to
8 feet for the inner waters south of Point Conception, highest in
the Santa Barbara Channel. Seas may reach 10 feet in the southern 
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

These strong NW to W winds and large, choppy seas will create 
dangerous boating conditions for many of the nearshore waters 
around the islands and at the coasts. These conditions will be 
especially dangerous for small vessels. Remain in safe harbor 
today through tonight until conditions improve.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox