832 
FXUS62 KILM 031750
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
150 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will bring breezy and seasonable to
mild conditions. As the high progresses east early next week it
will become less breezy. A cold front will approach late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mild, dry, and breezy Fall day is underway across the forecast 
area with highs expected to top out around 80F amidst dew points in 
the 50s to low 60s. As surface high pressure north of the area 
shifts eastward and weakens through tonight, the pressure field will 
tend to pivot and permit an increasingly easterly component to the 
low-level flow. The end result will be periods of cloudiness and 
perhaps a passing shower mainly affecting the coastal areas from 
late this afternoon through tonight, with isolated spots picking up 
a hundredth or two of measurable rain. Otherwise, expect a cirrus 
shield to arrive from the southwest this evening as debris clouds 
from convection over the Gulf is funneled northeastward ahead of a 
trough in the jetstream. Although the weakening pressure gradient 
will result in slower winds tonight, a light but steady northeast 
breeze should continue in open areas, with sheltered and far inland 
locations likely seeing periods of calm winds. Low temps should end 
up mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the coast, although 
some cooler spots may see mid-50s. 

On Saturday, guidance suggests a weak upper-level anticyclone should 
organize with its center over eastern NC, turning the mid-level flow 
to southeasterly. The growth of the anticyclone aloft should 
suppress mid-level impulses and keep them south of the area, 
resulting in a very low chance for any showers to make it to shore, 
despite the more directly onshore trajectory of the flow field. 
Nevertheless, intervals of clouds and sun can be expected as bands 
of clouds move onshore through the day and an isolated shower cannot 
be completely ruled out. Otherwise, expect passing high cirrus as a 
trough in the jetstream continues to funnel debris clouds from the 
Gulf northeastward. Highs should end up a degree or two warmer 
tomorrow than today, mainly in the low 80s away from the immediate 
shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will be centered to our 
northeast through the period. This is slightly to the east of where 
these features have been recently, and this will allow for milder 
temperatures by both day and night. The center of the surface ridge 
will also be weaker and closer than days past making for less of a 
breeze. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moving into the Great Lakes area will start pushing the 
high to our NE farther out to sea. Temperatures will continue to 
average above normal and the moisture recovery that yesterday was 
cited as often being too fast has backed off. Even Wednesday's 
possible increase in POPs due to the approach of a cold front have 
been nixed to just 20 percent due to such limited moisture advection 
ahead of the boundary. Looks like the late week boundary pushes 
through with little fanfare other than a trend back towards 
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure north of the area will maintain northeasterly winds 
through tonight with a slight veering to east-northeasterly on 
Saturday. Enhanced cloud cover originating from the ocean should 
remain above MVFR levels at the coastal terminals this afternoon 
into tonight, but a brief passing shower cannot be ruled out if any 
survive to the coastline. For tonight, steady winds should preclude 
most terminals from seeing any mist development, with the one caveat 
being KLBT, where the potential exists for winds to become light 
enough for brief MVFR mist late tonight. Thickening high cirrus and 
at least intermittent winds should prevent this, but a lean towards 
this potential was made for this TAF issuance with 6SM mist included 
as a precaution. In addition, as low-level moisture increases due to 
the veering of the flow, some MVFR stratus is possible inland late 
tonight, but confidence is too low to explicitly mention at this 
point. Thus, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period 
with low chances for brief early-morning restrictions inland. 

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have 
some patchy fog during the early morning over the weekend and 
into early next week. Low rain chances return by midweek as a 
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... High pressure north of the area will weaken and 
shift eastward through the period, resulting in a gradual veering of 
the winds from northeasterly to east-northeasterly with speeds only 
dropping a few knots due to the weakening gradient. Wave heights 
subside just a little due to the slowing of the winds, with 6-ft 
seas expected to temporarily exit the vast majority of the coastal 
waters by late tonight, except near the 20-nmi boundary southeast of 
Cape Fear and the far southeastern portion of the coastal waters 
from South Santee River to Murrells Inlet. 

Saturday night through Wednesday... High pressure centered to the 
north and east early in the period turning our NE winds to more 
easterly. Wind waves and the less dominant easterly swell will still 
combine to necessitate SCA through perhaps Monday night. Heading 
towards the midweek period the surface pattern becomes more 
progressive, relaxing the gradient and allowing for lighter winds 
and headline-free conditions though waves will only marginally fall 
below criteria especially NC waters. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: High rip risk in place for Pender, New
Hanover and Georgetown county beaches where the ENE-E 6+ second
period wind waves will "pile up". A noticeable but small 11-13 
second period easterly swell to continue today, also aiding the 
rip current potential. Strong longshore currents can be
expected, generally in a north to south direction. The 
exception will be Brunswick County beaches where a moderate to 
possibly strong east to west longshore current will reside. 

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM